贵金属数据日报-20260114

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metals prices are expected to remain strong under the dual support of macro and fundamental factors. However, due to risk - control measures by the Shanghai Futures Exchange and CME, price fluctuations may be significant. It's recommended to control positions. Long - term, the upward logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and strategies should focus on buying on dips or selling slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties are rising, and dollar credit risks are increasing. Gold prices will likely shift upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price Tracking - On January 13, 2026, London gold spot was at $4580.07/oz, London silver spot at $84.87/oz, COMEX gold at $4588.80/oz, and COMEX silver at $84.71/oz. The prices of AU2602, AG2602, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) were 1027.18 yuan/g, 21030 yuan/kg, 1024.62 yuan/g, and 21030 yuan/kg respectively. Compared to January 12, 2026, the price increases were 0.1%, 0.6%, 0.0%, 0.4%, 0.1%, 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.4% respectively [3]. - On January 13, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.56 yuan/g, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was 0 yuan/kg. The gold and silver spreads between domestic and foreign markets and other price spreads also had corresponding values and changes from January 12, 2026 [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of January 12, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR held 1070.8 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV held 16347.94785 tons. The non - commercial long, short, and net long positions in COMEX gold and silver also had corresponding quantities and changes compared to January 9, 2026, such as a 0.59% increase in gold ETF - SPDR and a - 6.18% decrease in COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On January 13, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 98283.00 kg, a 0.65% increase from January 12, 2026, and SHFE silver inventory was 630066.00 kg, a - 3.01% decrease. COMEX gold and silver inventories also had corresponding values and changes [3]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 13, 2026, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.01, with a - 0.01% change from January 12, 2026. The dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYWEX crude oil also had corresponding values and changes [3]. 3.5 Market Review - On January 13, the Shanghai gold futures main contract rose 1.01% to 1027.18 yuan/g, and the Shanghai silver futures main contract rose 5.9% to 21004 yuan/kg [3]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - Geopolitical risks and the Fed's independence crisis support the strong rise in precious metal prices. The U.S. December data on inflation makes the market increase bets on Fed rate cuts, further driving precious metal prices. Silver's spot premium, futures structure, inventory situation, and the change in photovoltaic export tax - rebate policy also help release silver price elasticity [4]. 3.7 Medium - to - Long - Term Views - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed's easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties, increasing dollar credit risks, and the continued allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents will likely cause the center of gold prices to move upward. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5].