退税调整影响尚在，碳酸锂价格触及涨停

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of the battery tax rebate policy will have a significant impact on the lithium - ion battery industry, with high - quality development becoming the future trend and the industry structure being reshaped. For the lithium carbonate variety, it may support price increases in the short term but is more bearish in the long - term. The exchange's policy adjustments aim to prevent excessive speculation and maintain market order, which is expected to affect the volatility of lithium carbonate. The current price is highly affected by news, with over - speculation, slowing inventory depletion, and a basis deviation in the market, so there is a risk of a price correction [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 168,000 yuan/ton and closed at 166,980 yuan/ton, with a 7.44% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 608,177 lots, and the open interest was 460,281 lots (the previous day's open interest was 506,702 lots). The current basis was - 9,420 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures), and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 26,898 lots, a change of 928 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 155,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton, a change of 7,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 152,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 7,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,190 US dollars/ton, a change of 105 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] Inventory - The spot inventory was 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 715 tons; the downstream inventory was 36,540 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,458 tons; the other inventory was 52,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,080 tons. The inventory inflection point has appeared, and future attention should be paid to the actual consumption of downstream consumers [3] Strategy - The current price is highly affected by news, with over - speculation, slowing inventory depletion, and a basis deviation in the market. There is a short - term excessive increase, and the risk of a price correction should be vigilant [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: None [5] - Inter - delivery spread trading: None [6] - Cross - commodity trading: None [6] - Spot - futures trading: None [6] - Options trading: None [6]