石油沥青日报：终端需求逐步下滑，现货整体持稳-20260114

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Terminal demand for asphalt is gradually declining, while spot prices remain generally stable. The rigid demand for asphalt continues to decline, suppressing the sentiment in the asphalt spot market. Currently, there is a tug - of - war between cost - side support and weak demand. After pricing in the expectation of tightened Venezuelan crude oil supply, the market has shifted to a volatile trend [1]. - In the context of escalating South American situation and the US intention to strengthen control over Venezuelan resources, the expectation of tightened supply of Venezuelan crude oil to domestic refineries is continuously materializing. If Venezuelan crude oil that originally flowed to Asia continues to flow to Europe and the US, domestic refineries will need to seek alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, South America, etc. after depleting inventory raw materials (expected to last until March), which will make cost and product yield changes more complex and require dynamic tracking [1]. Market Analysis - On January 13th, the closing price of the main BU2603 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,125 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton or 0.66% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 207,908 lots, a decrease of 14,617 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 280,447 lots, an increase of 59,521 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - According to Zhuochuang Information, the spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt are as follows: 3,406 - 3,500 yuan/ton in Northeast China; 3,020 - 3,240 yuan/ton in Shandong; 3,130 - 3,250 yuan/ton in South China; 3,180 - 3,230 yuan/ton in East China. The spot price of asphalt in North China declined slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions remained basically stable [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Buy the main BU contract on dips, and early bottom - fishing long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [2]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the BU2303/2306 spread on dips (positive spread trading) [2]. - Inter - commodity spread: None [2]. - Futures - cash: None [2]. - Options: None [2]