化工日报：原油反弹PXN压缩，关注聚酯减产情况-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overnight crude oil price increase has expanded, and it has shown a strong and oscillating trend during the Asian trading session. The escalating geopolitical risks in Iran continue to support the upward movement of oil prices. The PXN has retraced due to the weakening fundamentals, but the medium - term outlook remains positive, and the short - term decline in polyester operation rate is limited, so the PXN still has support. The PTA processing fee is expected to improve further in the long - term as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, and the inventory accumulation pressure in January is not significant [1]. - The polyester operation rate is 90.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.9%), while the weaving load continues to decline. The polyester load changes little, but the maintenance plans around the Spring Festival have been announced one after another, and the average monthly load in January is expected to drop to around 88%. The PF production profit is 10 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 49 yuan/ton), and the demand is weak. The PR spot processing fee is 537 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 21 yuan/ton), and the processing fee is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [2]. - For the unilateral strategy, it is advisable to cautiously buy on dips for hedging in PX/PTA/PF/PR, and pay attention to the impact of the Iranian situation on crude oil prices. The PX mid - term outlook remains positive, the PTA processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term, the PF processing fee fluctuates weakly, and the PR processing fee is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - The figures include the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trend, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [8][9][11] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures cover the PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][19] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The figures involve the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [24][26] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Operation - The figures display the PTA operation rates in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX operation rates in China and Asia [27][30][32] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures include the PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - The figures cover the filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operation rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [48][50][58] 7. Detailed PF Data - The figures include the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][77][79] 8. Detailed PR Fundamental Data - The figures cover the polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [86][88][94]