生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the apple market, the new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak values are lower year - on - year, providing support, but the lack of consumer growth drivers restricts upward movement. Apple 2605 is expected to trade in a high - level range [11][21]. - Regarding the红枣 market, the expectation of reduced production may gradually manifest in the far - month contracts. The spot inventory has started to decline after reaching its peak, and the market is expected to enter a phased peak in sales with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [12][21][25]. - In the sugar market, the international sugar supply is abundant, and China is in the sugar - cane crushing season, resulting in sufficient market supply. Sugar 2605 is expected to be in a sideways - to - bearish trend [4][21]. - For the pulp market, although there are positive factors in supply and an increase in warehouse - receipt costs, the improvement in the domestic downstream market is limited, and the upward space of pulp is restricted [5][21]. - In the double - offset paper market, the spot market is stable, and the basis has widened, providing some support. However, due to the high total production capacity and low capacity utilization rate, the price increase is limited [7][21]. - For the cotton market, the external market is at a low level, and there are strong long - term positive expectations in the domestic market. Although there may be short - term adjustments, the price is expected to maintain an upward trend [10][21]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy - Apple 2605: Hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 10000 - 10200 [21]. - Red date 2605: Buy on dips in the short - term, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [21]. - Soft Commodity Futures Strategy - Sugar 2605: Sideways - to - bearish, with a support range of 5180 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400 [21]. - Pulp 2605: Bearish within a range, with a support range of 5300 - 5350 and a pressure range of 5550 - 5700 [21]. - Double - offset paper 2605: Trade within a range, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4300 - 4350 [21]. - Cotton 2605: Hold long positions cautiously, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [21]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of January 8, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 673,370 tons, a decrease of 287,300 tons compared with before New Year's Day and a year - on - year decrease of 668,600 tons [22]. - In the Shandong production area, the price of late - maturing bagged Fuji apples was stable, and the sales slightly increased. In the Shaanxi production area, the price was also stable, with good - quality apples being scarce. In the sales area, the arrival of goods was stable, but the sales speed slowed down slightly [22][23][24]. - Red Date Market - As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. With the approaching of the Lunar New Year, the market is expected to enter a phased peak in sales [25]. - Sugar Market - Ukraine's sugar exports in 2025 decreased to 463,700 tons from 746,000 tons in 2024. In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 8, 2026, 197 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, 2 less than the same period of the previous season, with a sugar production of 5.6297 million tons. As of January 7, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 16.9782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.35%, and the sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.03% [27]. - Pulp Market - As of December 31, the price of pulp remained stable. Coniferous and broad - leaved pulp prices increased by $20/ton. In November, the global pulp shipment decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the shipment to China decreased more than the global average. However, the overseas producer inventory remained at a two - year high, and the domestic and European port inventories were also high [5]. - Double - offset Paper Market - The inventory days of double - offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed month - on - month. The social demand was still weak, and the inventory pressure increased. The operating load rate was 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points [31]. - Cotton Market - In 2026, Xinjiang will adjust the cotton - planting area, adhering to the principles of "large - scale stability, small - scale adjustment, optimized layout, and improved quality". In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 9.6% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. As of January 10, the net export contract of Egyptian cotton was 3783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week [32]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review - Apple 2605 closed at 9779, up 149 or 1.55% [33]. - Red date 2605 closed at 9060, down 100 or 1.09% [33]. - Sugar 2605 closed at 5253, down 32 or 0.61% [33]. - Pulp 2605 closed at 5492, up 2 or 0.04% [33]. - Cotton 2605 closed at 14760, up 135 or 0.92% [33]. - Spot Market Review - The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, with no month - on - month change but a year - on - year increase of 0.45 yuan/jin. - The spot price of red dates was 9.40 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 yuan/kg and a year - on - year decrease of 5.30 yuan/kg. - The spot price of sugar was 5360 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change but a year - on - year decrease of 670 yuan/ton. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 880 yuan/ton. - The spot price of double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The spot price of cotton was 15783 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74 yuan/ton and a year - on - year increase of 1072 yuan/ton [42]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary content provided, only related figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread was 1229, with a month - on - month increase of 80 and a year - on - year increase of 1645, expected to be sideways - to - bullish, and the recommended strategy was to buy on dips [61]. - Red date 9 - 1 spread was 310, with a month - on - month increase of 205 and a year - on - year decrease of 385, expected to be range - bound, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see [61]. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread was - 13, a month - on - month decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 134, expected to fluctuate, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see [61]. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread was - 155, a month - on - month increase of 15 and a year - on - year increase of 10, expected to be sideways - to - bearish, and the recommended strategy was to sell on rallies [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific summary content provided, only related figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no month - on - month or year - on - year change. - The number of red date warehouse receipts was 2981, a month - on - month increase of 161 and a year - on - year decrease of 520. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 9499, a month - on - month increase of 560 and a year - on - year decrease of 6048. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 149134, a month - on - month increase of 6771 and a year - on - year decrease of 187722. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8410, a month - on - month increase of 642 and a year - on - year increase of 2214 [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary content provided, only related figure references.