供需延续收紧，成本端支撑抬升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Supply-side: PDH device parking information is continuously released. The 900,000-ton PDH device of Jinneng Phase II has started maintenance for about 20 days, and the Shenghong MTO device also has a maintenance plan in the later stage. The supply pressure in the propylene market is expected to be alleviated stage by stage, and the market starts to trade the expectation of tightened supply due to device maintenance, waiting for the fulfillment of the expectation of increased maintenance in the first quarter [2]. - Demand-side: Downstream buyers enter the market at low prices and make rigid purchases. The spot trading of propylene has improved. The overall downstream operating rate has rebounded. The PP end has seen the restart of the second line of Jingbo's PP and the 150,000-ton PP device of Huizhou Lituo that purchases propylene externally. The support at the PP end has increased. At the PO end, the price of propylene oxide has risen rapidly due to the rush to export caused by the cancellation of export tax rebates for its main downstream product, polyether. The profit of PO has been greatly repaired, and the operating rate of the main downstream is expected to rise. The profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable, and the restart of previously shut - down devices has led to a significant increase in the operating rate. The operating rates of acrylic acid and phenol - ketone have also increased significantly. There is still rigid demand support downstream of propylene, but attention should be paid to the follow - up situation of downstream enterprises after the profit is compressed when the propylene price rises to a high level [2]. - Cost-side: International oil prices have rebounded due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, and the price of propane remains strong, which still provides support. The cost support for propylene has increased. With the marginal improvement of supply and demand and the boost of sentiment, the propylene price continues to be strong. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and the fulfillment of PDH device maintenance [2]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is advisable to cautiously go long on a hedging basis. The supply - demand structure has improved slightly, and the short - term market will remain strong under the boost of sentiment, waiting for the fulfillment of marginal device maintenance. There are no strategies for inter - period or cross - variety trading [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the propylene basis structure, including the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts of propylene, the price difference between the PL03 - 05 contracts, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][12][13][14] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures show aspects such as the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, production profit and capacity utilization rate of PDH - made propylene, production profit and capacity utilization rate of MTO - made propylene, production profit of propylene from naphtha cracking, capacity utilization rate of crude oil main refineries, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [18][21][26][29][32] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The report provides information on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone, which are downstream products of propylene [36][37][44][51][52][55][59] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Figures display the in - plant inventory of propylene and PP powder [64]