美国12月核心通胀降温，关注中国12月进出口数据

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The inflation narrative is prominent currently. The subsequent boost in consumption and the advancement of "anti - involution" remain unchanged. The future path of price recovery still depends on supply - side policies. There are signs of inflation cooling in the US in December. Attention should be paid to China's December import and export data. There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic outlooks. The report suggests seizing opportunities in commodities and stock index futures, and recommends buying futures of stock indices, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [1][2][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. The 2026 People's Bank of China work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery through monetary policy tools. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Venezuela are rising, and the global competition for minerals and energy resources is intensifying. The Fed's third - in - command stated that there is no strong pressure to change interest rates. CME will adjust the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts [1] Economic Data Comparison - Overseas economic sentiment has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year in US dollars. China's November economic data was under pressure, but the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December were better than expected. The US December ISM manufacturing index declined slightly and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US December non - farm payrolls were lower than expected, and the unemployment rate remained high. The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the core CPI hit a four - year low [2] Commodity Analysis - Currently, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and look for opportunities in low - valued commodities. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous metals sector persists, with aluminum and nickel being preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term risks in the new energy sector. The LME copper inventory has dropped to a six - month low. In the energy sector, the US plans to "distribute" Venezuelan oil, and Trump hopes to lower oil prices. In the chemical sector, there is potential for "anti - involution" in methanol and PTA. For agricultural products, monitor weather forecasts and short - term pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals on dips [3] Strategy - Buy stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals on dips [4] Important News - Trump will interview Rick Rieder for the Fed chair position on the 15th, and Rieder supports lowering the US benchmark interest rate to 3%. The investigation of Powell has caused internal strife. The New York Fed President said the labor market is stable and inflation may peak in the first half of 2026. The US December CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the core CPI was 2.6%. Trump pressured the US Supreme Court on tariffs and imposed a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. Japan's Prime Minister intends to dissolve the House of Representatives. CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The LME copper inventory dropped to a six - month low. Some commodity futures had significant price movements on January 13th [6]