新单跟进谨慎

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices in some regions have increased after improved transactions, but new orders are being followed up cautiously. Supply is expected to increase in January as some gas-based and technical renovation enterprises resume production. Demand is picking up as winter and spring fertilizer procurement begins, and compound fertilizer and melamine production are recovering. Factory inventories are stable, and port inventories are slightly decreasing. The Indian urea import tender has boosted the international market sentiment. Attention should be paid to export dynamics, national off-season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong and Henan urea small particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [1][6][7] 2. Urea Production - Figures show urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss volume [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [27][28][34] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Figures involve urea small particle FOB price in the Baltic Sea, urea large particle CFR price in Southeast Asia, price differences between international and Chinese FOB prices, and urea export profit and disk export profit [38][41][49] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures display compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and urea enterprise advance order days [51][52] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and main contract trading volume and open interest [55][58][60] Market Data - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1774 yuan/ton (-9). The ex - factory price of small particles in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1740 yuan/ton (+10), and in Jiangsu was 1750 yuan/ton (+10). The price of small lump anthracite was 800 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+19), Henan basis was - 34 yuan/ton (+9), and Jiangsu basis was - 24 yuan/ton (+19). Urea production profit was 175 yuan/ton (+10), and export profit was 867 yuan/ton (+16) [1] - As of January 13, 2026, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.28% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 102.22 million tons (+0.30), and the port sample inventory was 13.50 million tons (-3.70) [1] - As of January 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 37.17% (+3.28%); the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 54.35% (+6.70%); the advance order days of urea enterprises were 6.41 days (+0.41) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery spread: Go long on the UR05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - commodity spread: None [3]