农产品日报：USDA报告偏多，棉价震荡反弹-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [1][3][6] Core Views - The USDA report is bullish for cotton, but short - term ICE cotton is under pressure while the long - term downside is limited. Domestic cotton supply and demand are expected to be balanced, with a possible tightening of inventory at the end of the year [1] - The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. Short - term trade flow is tight, but the medium - term surplus will suppress prices. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and short - term demand may support prices [3] - Overseas pulp supply is disrupted, and there is a replenishment expectation before the Spring Festival. Domestic demand may show a mild recovery, and short - term pulp prices are expected to be slightly stronger, but the upward height depends on demand improvements and port inventory digestion [6] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,760 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+0.92%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,500 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,783 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan/ton [1] - According to the USDA January report, in the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area was 56.345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu. The harvest area increased to 47.376 million mu, and the yield was expected to be 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. Consumption was expected to be 348,000 tons, a decrease of 5.9%, and exports were expected to be 2.656 million tons, unchanged. Ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rebounded. Internationally, the short - term ICE cotton is under pressure due to supply and weak consumption, but the long - term downside is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season. Although downstream demand has declined recently, annual consumption is expected to be high, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced with a possible inventory tightening at the end of the year [1] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term risks of high - level corrections should be watched, and long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.61%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - As of January 12, 2026, in the 2025/26 Thai sugar season, the cumulative cane crushing volume was 23.0955 million tons, a decrease of 5.7536 million tons (-19.94%) from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 583,600 tons (-21.18%) [2] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices closed down. The global sugar market is in a surplus in the 25/26 season. Short - term trade flow is tight, but the medium - term surplus will suppress prices. Long - term sugar prices should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and short - term demand may support prices, but import pressure remains [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - and medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downside [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,492 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,135 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Yesterday, the imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices slightly adjusted downwards [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, pulp futures prices fluctuated narrowly. Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance in late 2025. European demand continued to improve in November, while domestic demand was weak, but there was a marginal increase in demand in December, which may support pulp prices [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term pulp prices are expected to be slightly stronger, but the upward height depends on demand improvements and port inventory digestion [6]