新能源及有色金属日报：基本面维持弱势，双硅同步下跌-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are weak, with both prices falling on January 13, 2026 [1][3]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain range - bound oscillations, supported by the increase in coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices under the situation of reduced supply and demand. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost and production - cut expectations [3]. - For polysilicon, due to the new policy of canceling export tax rebates for photovoltaic value - added tax and the failure of coordinated price - support efforts, the short - term is to stay on the sidelines, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to short on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated downward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8710 yuan/ton and closed at 8635 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton (-1.65%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 242,469 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 12 was 10,888 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton. The prices in various regions remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. The total social inventory in major industrial silicon regions on January 8 was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1]. - Consumption Analysis - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13700 - 14000 yuan/ton. The cancellation of the photovoltaic value - added tax export tax rebate policy is expected to increase short - term polysilicon demand, and strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon, but the demand boost has not yet appeared. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the organic silicon maintained the peak - shifting emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable and slightly weak [2]. - Strategy - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain range - bound oscillations. Short - term range operation is recommended for unilateral trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On January 13, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 49,655 yuan/ton and closing at 49,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.45% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 48,844 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 28,379 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon decreased slightly. The price of N - type material was 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, a decrease of 1.30% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW, an increase of 13.11% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 0.80% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 10.52GW, an increase of 3.34% month - on - month [4]. - Strategy - In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium - to - long - term, short on rallies. For unilateral trading, short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract will maintain weak oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].