伊朗高硫燃料油发货量或出现下滑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety: None - Cross - period: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the escalating domestic situation in Iran and the position adjustment of commodity index funds, oil prices are oscillating strongly in the short term but are highly influenced by news, with unclear direction for FU and LU. The fuel oil market has mixed long and short factors with limited overall contradictions. The sharp decline in the crack spread in the US Gulf has dragged down the Asia - Pacific and domestic markets. However, after domestic asphalt refineries consume their existing raw materials around March, high - sulfur fuel oil may fill some gaps, and the decline in the crack spread is beneficial for downstream demand. Iran's fuel oil shipments are showing signs of decline, with potential supply risks accumulating. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall contradictions and drivers are limited. Local supply may increase, but the high premiums of gasoline and diesel will support the market by diverting low - sulfur oil components [2] 3. Summary of Related Contents Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.53% at 2461 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.66% at 3066 yuan/ton [1] - Iran's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments may decline. Based on shipping schedule data, Iran's high - sulfur fuel oil shipments in January are expected to be 490,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 620,000 tons [2] Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil strategy: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [3] - Cross - variety, cross - period, spot - futures, and options strategies: None [3]