消费整体仍清淡，铅价难有靓丽表现

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall consumption is still sluggish, and it is difficult for the lead price to perform well. The lead price may fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton. Operators can conduct buy and sell hedging as needed within this range [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 13, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.63/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,175 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -150 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton, 10,200 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On January 13, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,480 yuan/ton and closed at 17,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 33,329 lots, a decrease of 5,038 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 34,986 lots, a decrease of 5,327 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,495 yuan/ton and a low of 17,270 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase from the afternoon of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The downstream maintained rigid demand procurement, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally weak spot market [2] Inventory - On January 13, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 26,000 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 13, the LME lead inventory was 218,925 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons compared to the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The downstream of the lead industry may experience a slight increase in production after the New Year's Day. However, some enterprises may consider reducing production or arranging holidays if orders remain sluggish. The supply of lead ore remains tight, and processing fees are still low. Therefore, the lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,800 yuan/ton. Operators can conduct buy and sell hedging as needed within this range [4]