弘业期货成材周报：需求转弱，区域分化-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall demand for logs is showing a contraction trend, with regional differentiation. The southern market may maintain a steady - to - rising price due to winter stockpiling, while the northern market is weakening. In the long - term, the log market is expected to oscillate at a low level. In the short - term, the 2603 contract is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and in the medium - term, prices may weaken around the Spring Festival in 2026 [3][4][5] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Industry Data 3.1.1 Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, and the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased. The price of radiata pine logs in Jiangsu rose due to supply contraction and demand support. - Futures: As of January 13, the log main contract 2603 closed at 774.5 yuan/cubic meter, showing a strong oscillation. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand → China) was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a 3.85% decrease compared to late December 2025 [2] 3.1.2 Supply - From January 3 - 9, 2026, a total of 9 ships with 350,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 8 ships with 300,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 2 ships and 80,000 cubic meters. - Expected arrival volume at 13 ports this week (January 12 - 18, 2026): 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an 18% increase compared to last week, with a total arrival volume of about 411,000 cubic meters, an 8% increase. - Actual arrival volume at 13 ports last week (January 5 - 11, 2026): 11 New Zealand log ships were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a 15% decrease compared to the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 380,000 cubic meters, a 12% decrease. - In November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a 16.86% month - on - month increase and a 2.58% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the total import volume was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a 7.07% year - on - year decrease [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of January 13, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.69 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.29 million cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters; the North American timber inventory was 120,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory was 130,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. - Overall, downstream demand is weak and stable, the arrival volume pressure is rising, and high arrival volumes are continuously pressuring port log inventory and spot prices. Inventory decreased in December due to reduced previous arrivals, but has started to accumulate since January [3] 3.1.4 Demand - From January 5 - 11, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 57,500 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase compared to last week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 27,900 cubic meters, a 3.46% decrease; the average daily outbound volume at Jiangsu ports was 23,500 cubic meters, an 8.29% increase. - Downstream demand is suppressed by seasonal factors. The southern Yangtze River Delta region may maintain a steady - to - rising price due to winter stockpiling and low arrival pressure, but the increase is limited. The northern market is in the final stage before the holiday, with weakening demand and a possible weakening price trend [3] 3.1.5 Recent News and Outlook - China's import of radiata pine shows a trend of resource centralization, with an increasing proportion from New Zealand. However, the risk of over - reliance on a single source is accumulating. - Anti - involution policies have an indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries, and there is a high correlation between construction wood and coke. - The Sino - US Geneva Joint Statement in May may boost wood product exports, but the current terminal market is sluggish. The suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs and counter - tariffs for 90 days in July has been extended, and there are still uncertainties in the export cost of Chinese wood products. - The EU Commission has imposed higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, and Mexico has made an affirmative preliminary anti - dumping ruling on cardboard from China. - China has lifted the suspension of importing US logs, but the short - term arrival and clearance volume will be limited. - New Zealand's log supply to China is expected to slow down before the Chinese Spring Festival, and there may be a slight increase in the new round of outer - market quotes [4] 3.1.6 Strategies and Suggestions - In summer from July to early September, the futures market rebounded significantly, but the market's long - term expectation for real estate demand was cautious, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak differentiation trend. - In the second half of the year, the near - and far - month contracts showed significant differentiation. The 2511 contract fell rapidly after the peak season, and the 2601 contract oscillated strongly at first and then fell. - In the short - term, the 2601 contract is oscillating at a low level, and the 2603 contract is relatively stronger. The outer - market quote for New Zealand radiata pine logs in January 2026 has slightly decreased, and the overall demand is expected to contract in the future. - In the medium - term, around the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken. Whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on the real estate industry's support policies and the post - Spring Festival cost and demand recovery [5] 3.2 Log Import Sources - Radiata pine is mainly imported from New Zealand, and fir and spruce are mainly imported from Europe [14] 3.3 Log Import Volume - The data shows the monthly port shipping volume, departure ship number, and total import volume of New Zealand logs from 2023 - 2025, as well as the monthly import volume of different tree species of logs [16][18] 3.4 Log Inventory - The data presents the inventory of logs at different ports and of different varieties in China, including the inventory of coniferous logs, radiata pine, North American timber, and spruce [21] 3.5 Log Outbound Volume - The data shows the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports from 2023 - 2026, as well as the average daily outbound volume at Shandong and Jiangsu ports [24][27] 3.6 Log Demand - Related Data - The data includes the weekly outbound volume of cement, the weekly shipping volume of concrete, the actual in - place funds of real - estate development enterprises, and the correlation between building materials products [30][33]