光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月14日）-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical commodities market is that most varieties are expected to show an oscillatory trend. For crude oil, supply - side concerns are intensifying, which will provide phased support for oil prices. For fuel oil, the short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may follow the oil price fluctuations, and it is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies. For asphalt, the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. For polyester, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, while ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. For rubber, the price is under pressure from inventory accumulation. For methanol, it is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. For polyolefins, they will continue to oscillate at the bottom. For PVC, the price will also maintain bottom - level oscillations [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - WTI February contract closed at $61.15 per barrel, up $1.65 or 2.77%. Brent March contract closed at $65.47 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.51%. SC2602 closed at 450.4 yuan per barrel, up 12.7 yuan or 2.90%. - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption, along with multiple factors, has halved the loading volume to about 900,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes. - API data shows an increase in US API crude, Cushing crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. - At least 4 Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea were attacked, and supply - side concerns are intensifying, providing phased support for oil prices. The view is oscillatory [1]. Fuel Oil - The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2603) rose 0.53% to 2,461 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose 1.66% to 3,066 yuan per ton. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support from the recovery of downstream demand. However, the entry of Venezuelan heavy crude may have a negative impact on high - sulfur spreads. - It is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies, and the view is oscillatory [2]. Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt (BU2602) fell 0.66% to 3,140 yuan per ton. - Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, the expectation of tight processing raw materials has strengthened, and the refinery supply has decreased, driving up the price. - The market will be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation," and the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. The view is oscillatory [2]. Polyester - TA605 closed at 5,140 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. EG2605 closed at 3,815 yuan per ton, down 1.68%. PX futures contract 603 closed at 7,282 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. - Geopolitical risks have raised the risk premium of crude oil, and there is a game between the downstream negative feedback and the rise in oil prices. The price of polyester is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. The view is oscillatory [2][4]. Rubber - The main contract of natural rubber (RU2605) fell 155 yuan per ton to 15,975 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 170 yuan per ton to 12,840 yuan per ton. - In November 2025, the export volume of natural rubber decreased by 14.7% year - on - year and 29.8% month - on - month. - The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere, but it is under pressure from inventory accumulation after the low - production season. The view is oscillatory [4]. Methanol - The spot price in Taicang was 2,257 yuan per ton. - The arrival volume in January has decreased significantly, and the MTO device load has also declined. The port will face inventory - removal pressure, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [4]. Polyolefins - The mainstream price of PP in East China was 6,370 - 6,500 yuan per ton, and the profit margins of various production methods were negative. For PE, the prices of different types are given, and the profit margins of different production methods vary. - In January, there are partial temporary shutdowns and maintenance of upstream devices, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The demand will recover in early January but decline in late January due to the Spring Festival. - The inventory is expected to rise in late January, and polyolefins will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The view is oscillatory [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The market prices in East, North, and South China have adjusted. - The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand has slowed down. The market shows a structure of "weak reality and strong expectation." The export tax - refund policy change will increase the upward pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. The price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The data table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical varieties on January 13th and 12th, 2026, as well as the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump's increased verbal attacks on Iran have intensified investors' concerns about US intervention and supply disruptions in Iran, which may threaten Iran's daily oil production of about 3.3 million barrels. Trump also said he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries "doing business" with Iran. - The situation in Iran has also exacerbated the bullish sentiment in the market. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption has halved the loading volume of Kazakh crude to about 900,000 barrels per day, but Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - There are price trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][27]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - There are basis trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][34][35][36][39][40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - There are spread trend charts for different contracts of energy - chemical commodities, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - There are spread and ratio trend charts for different energy - chemical varieties, including crude oil (domestic - international, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [58][60][62][64]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - There are profit and processing - fee trend charts for energy - chemical products, including LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, Zhong Meiyan, with rich experience and many awards; the energy - chemical research director, Du Bingqin, also with many honors and in - depth industry research; the natural rubber/polyester analyst, Di Yilin, who has won some awards and is good at data analysis; and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, Peng Haibo, with a background in futures - spot trading and a CFA - level 3 qualification [71][72][73][74].