光大期货金融期货日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Oscillating [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Relatively Strong [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market adjusted with oscillations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index dropping nearly 2%. AI-related concepts and some sectors like oil and gas and power grid equipment showed strength, while the commercial spaceflight concept declined. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, setting a new record. The rise of the A-share index at the beginning of 2026 was driven by global technological development, the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, and the weakening dollar. The tense global geopolitical situation led to a short-term surge in rare metals. With the index at a high level and heavy trading volume, caution is advised when chasing high prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed with gains in some contracts. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal. The short-term sufficient liquidity supports the bond market, but factors such as economic stability, rising inflation, and cautiousness towards interest rate cuts pose certain constraints. The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound oscillation pattern in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Stock Index Futures: The market adjusted with oscillations, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2%. AI medical, AI pharmaceutical, AI marketing, oil and gas, and power grid equipment sectors performed well, while the commercial spaceflight concept retreated. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a new record. The index rise at the beginning of 2026 was driven by global technological development, the Fed's potential interest rate cuts, and the weakening dollar. The tense geopolitical situation led to a short - term surge in rare metals. With the index at a high level and heavy trading volume, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On Tuesday, the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year treasury bond futures contracts closed higher, while the 2 - year contract remained stable. The central bank conducted 3586 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 2576 billion yuan. The short - term sufficient liquidity supports the bond market, but economic stability, rising inflation, and cautiousness towards interest rate cuts pose constraints. The bond market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [2]. 3.2 Price Changes on the Day - Stock Index Futures: On January 13, 2026, IH decreased by 0.08%, IF by 0.32%, IC by 1.28%, and IM by 1.82% compared to the previous day [4]. - Stock Indexes: The Shanghai Composite 50 Index decreased by 0.34%, the CSI 300 Index by 0.60%, the CSI 500 Index by 1.28%, and the CSI 1000 Index by 1.84% [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS decreased by 0.01%, TF remained unchanged, T increased slightly by 0.00%, and TL increased by 0.13% [4]. 3.3 Market News - The market adjusted with oscillations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index down nearly 2%. AI - related concepts and some sectors like oil and gas and power grid equipment showed strength, while the commercial spaceflight concept declined. The trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, a new record. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.64%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.37%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.96% [5]. - AI medical, AI pharmaceutical, AI marketing, and oil and gas sectors led the gains, while commercial spaceflight, controlled nuclear fusion, quantum technology, and optical communication sectors led the losses [5]. - There were 1520 rising stocks, 74 daily limit stocks, 3547 falling stocks, 56 daily limit down stocks, and 58 stocks with broken daily limits, with a broken - limit rate of 47% [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the historical price trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [7][9][11]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report shows the historical price trends, basis trends, inter - period spread trends, cross - variety spread trends, and capital interest rate trends of treasury bond futures contracts [14][16][19][22]. - Exchange Rates: The report displays the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [24][25][26][28][30].