美国2025年12月CPI点评：美国12月通胀整体温和，但仍不足以推动1月降息

Group 1: Inflation Overview - December inflation in the U.S. showed a moderate performance, confirming the downward trend in inflation despite concerns over November's data distortion due to government shutdown effects[4] - The overall CPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.7%, while the core CPI year-on-year growth was steady at 2.6%, both aligning with expectations[4] - The decline in energy prices, which fell from 4.2% in November to 2.3% in December, significantly contributed to the moderate inflation figures[5] Group 2: Price Dynamics - The prices of used cars, a key indicator, dropped from 3.6% in November to 1.6% in December, indicating a significant easing in core inflation pressures[5] - Food prices increased from 2.6% in November to 3.1% in December, driven by higher dining out costs and seasonal consumption effects[6] - Medical service prices rebounded to 3.5%, reflecting resilience in service consumption despite overall inflation moderation[6] Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The inflation trajectory for 2026 is expected to show moderate declines, influenced by tariff costs being passed to end prices, but countered by falling housing prices and energy prices due to oversupply[7] - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to peak in the first half of 2026, with inflation likely to rise initially before declining in the latter half of the year[7] Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The moderate inflation data in December is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in January, as current policy rates are near neutral levels[8] - The labor market remains stable, with no significant deterioration, which does not support the case for further rate cuts[10] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve due to ongoing investigations may also deter premature rate cuts, as this could undermine market confidence[10]