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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - Neutral; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - Neutral; Device change - Cautiously bearish; Import - Cautiously bearish; Processing profit - Cautiously bearish [6] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Core view - Neutral; Month - spread - Cautiously bearish; Spot - Cautiously bearish; Import - Cautiously bullish [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: Supply changes little, demand has a seasonal load - reduction plan, supply - demand weakens marginally, processing fees remain high, short - term drivers are not obvious, buy on dips, and focus on cost changes [5][64] - PX: Supply - demand is okay, short - term PXN is above 350, both domestic and foreign supplies are increasing marginally, short - term valuation is not low, focus on capital preference [6][86] - MEG: Coal cost is strong, affected by Iran's geopolitics, expected imports may decline, near - term still faces inventory accumulation pressure, polyester has a production - cut plan starting mid - month, short - term range - bound operation [7][135] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PTA Supply - side - Device changes: Weilian increases load, YS Ningbo, Dahua, and Hainan are under maintenance, Sichuan Energy Investment is under maintenance until late January, Dushan 3 is under maintenance, Ineos operates at 70% and plans maintenance in mid - January, and New Materials has a maintenance plan in January. Long - stopped devices are expected to continue maintenance in 2026, and planned maintenance in January - February is not low [49][64] - Inventory: As of January 9, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) decreased to 2.6 million tons, with polyester factory inventory and warehouse receipt inventory slightly declining, and current inventory pressure is not large [50] - Balance sheet: Near - term changes are small, with an increase in polyester's planned load reduction. The PTA processing fee of over 300 is not low. In January, production is 6.5 million tons, import is 0.2 million tons, export is 3.6 million tons, and total consumption is 5.977 million tons, with a surplus of 1.65 million tons [61][64] Demand - side - Polyester load: As of January 9, it was 90.8%, with cash - flow pressure and average inventory of about 12.7 days. From mid - January, polyester factories will gradually carry out maintenance, and the subsequent operating rate will decline seasonally. The load is estimated to be 91%, 88%, and 84% from December to February [19][41] - Downstream orders: Terminal demand is seasonally weakening. As of January 9, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing decreased slightly to 72% (- 2%), 56% (- 3%), and 69% (-) [10] PX Supply - side - Device changes: Domestic load is 90.9%, Asian load is 81.2%. Shanghai Petrochemical slightly increases load, and Zhejiang Petrochemical plans to reduce load in mid - January. In Asia, FCFC in Taiwan reduces load, GS restarts in mid - January, Kuwaiti aromatics are under maintenance, and India's OMPL does not restart for the time being. Imports are expected to increase [83][86] - Balance sheet: In January, production is 3.39 million tons, import is 0.9 million tons, demand is 4.258 million tons, and inventory changes by 0.33 million tons. Supply - demand is in a loose balance, and PXN around 350+ has a relatively high valuation [85][86] Demand - side - Downstream demand: Demand orders are marginally weakening, weaving load is seasonally slightly declining, polyester load remains stable at a high level of 90.8%, and polyester inventory pressure is not large [6] MEG Supply - side - Device changes: As of January 9, the total MEG load is 74%, and the coal - based load is 79%. Domestic maintenance volume changes little. Chengdu Petroleum plans 10 - day maintenance in late January, while Fude, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Shenghong are under maintenance, and Zhejiang Petrochemical slightly reduces load. BASF's EG device is in progress. Coal - based Henan Energy Yongcheng is under 2 - week maintenance, Yankuang restarts, and Huayi increases load. Overseas, two 360,000 - ton devices of Taiwan Nanya are shut down, and devices in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, and the US are under maintenance [102][121][135] - Inventory: As of January 12, the MEG port inventory in East China is about 802,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons. Inventory is moderately high. The arrival forecast is not low, and port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Polyester factories' raw material stocking days are 14.6 days, and downstream stocking remains stable [129] - Balance sheet: In January, production is 1.9 million tons, import is 0.6 million tons, total consumption is 2.37 million tons, and the surplus is 0.13 million tons. Overseas maintenance increases, import is expected to improve, but polyester is seasonally under maintenance, and ports are still accumulating inventory [131][135] Demand - side - Polyester load: As of January 9, it is 90.8%. Polyester has a maintenance plan starting mid - January, and the load is estimated to be 91% and 88% in December and January [19][135] - Terminal orders: Terminal orders are slightly weakening, and stocking days are about half a month [135]