点评2025年12月美国CPI数据：数据扰动下的温和通胀

Inflation Data Summary - December CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.3% month-on-month, compared to an average increase of 0.1% in October and November[4] - Year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%, consistent with the previous value[4] - Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, matching the prior year's growth[4] Price Components - Energy prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.3% year-on-year, down from a previous 4.2%[7] - Food CPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, compared to a prior increase of 2.6%[7] - Core goods prices remained flat, with used car prices dropping by 1.1% month-on-month, indicating weak durable goods demand[8] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 remained stable, with FedWatch indicating an average of 2.2 cuts (56.2 basis points) compared to 2.1 cuts (51.6 basis points) prior to the data release[8] - The overall CPI and core inflation performance aligned with market expectations, indicating a moderate inflation environment[8] Future Outlook - Confirmation of the inflation path requires one to two "cleaner" data windows, with potential upward pressures from delayed economic activity due to government shutdowns and tariff pass-through effects starting in early 2026[9] - Downward pressures include falling crude oil prices and declining food commodity indices, alongside indicators suggesting a downward trend in housing rent CPI growth[9]