美国12月CPI点评：美联储短期挑战或不在通胀，而在政治端

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in December 2025, meeting market expectations, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, falling short of expectations[2] - Energy inflation saw a significant decline, with energy prices rising by only 2.3% year-on-year, down 1.9 percentage points from November[4] - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year in December, up 0.5 percentage points from November, indicating a seasonal demand increase[4] Core Inflation Insights - Core CPI remained stable, with core goods' year-on-year growth at approximately 1.4%, and core services rising by about 3.03%[4][21] - The price of used cars decreased by 1.1% month-on-month, contributing to the overall stability in core inflation[21] - Housing costs increased by 3.2% year-on-year, reflecting a slight rebound in rental inflation[22] Future Inflation Outlook - Inflation levels may continue to decline due to high base effects in early 2025, but potential rebound pressures exist from fiscal policies and economic support measures[5][36] - The Federal Reserve may tolerate slightly higher inflation to support the economy and labor market, with expectations that inflation will not return to 2% by 2026[42] - Political challenges are emerging for the Federal Reserve, particularly with the upcoming leadership changes and increased scrutiny from the Trump administration[6][48] Risk Considerations - Risks include potential geopolitical tensions leading to unexpected inflation spikes and the possibility of a more severe economic downturn than anticipated[7][49]