支撑与压力对决，宜逢低短多

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the decline in cotton area in Xinjiang is a certain event, but the market doubts the actual decline, and it is difficult to confirm in the short term. Based on the area expectation and the domestic lint sales progress, there is strong support below the Zhengzhou cotton price. Meanwhile, the downstream demand is average, and factors such as the stable - to - decreasing spinning mill operation rate and poor profitability restrict the price increase. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the macro - environment and downstream restocking [4]. - The USDA increased the domestic cotton production forecast in the 2025/26 season by 1 million bales to 34.5 million bales, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%. As of January 11, the national cotton inspection volume was 6.7838 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.62%, and the increase has narrowed compared with the initial stage. If the gap with the USDA's 7.8% production increase does not continue to narrow, there is still a possibility of further production adjustment, but the adjustment volume is expected to be limited. In January, the USDA slightly increased the US cotton production forecast by 350,000 bales, which is in line with the conclusion of "limited adjustment space" in the previous report [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs New Cotton Area and Sales - In late December, the Xinjiang Cotton Association announced that the cotton area would decline, but did not specify the decline rate. The market expects a reduction in the cotton target price in 2026, which will affect the cotton planting willingness in Xinjiang and is bullish for cotton prices in the medium - to - long term [5]. - As of January 8, 2026, the national lint sales rate was 55.6%, 24.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 27.6 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. As of the end of December, the domestic commercial cotton inventory was 5.7843 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1 million tons, with the increase rate basically the same as that of the same period last year and a year - on - year increase of 100,000 tons. Despite the significant increase in cotton production this year, there is no obvious increase in commercial inventory, and the overall inventory pressure is temporarily not large [5]. Price and Spread - Domestic Zhengzhou cotton shows a relatively strong trend due to the resonance of supply expectation tightening and market sentiment, while US cotton fluctuates narrowly due to weak continuous signing. The domestic - foreign cotton price spread has widened to a stage high. Geopolitical turmoil and uncertainties in trade policies in the international market may affect cotton demand [6]. - As of Tuesday this week, the price spread between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the port delivery price index of imported cotton under the sliding - scale duty increased by a certain amount week - on - week; the price spread with the port delivery price of imported cotton under the 1% tariff also increased week - on - week. The price spread between the C32S cotton yarn price index and the port delivery price increased week - on - week [52]. Market Transaction and Inventory - According to the USDA weekly export report, as of the week ending January 1, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 22,200 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous week, a 49% decrease from the four - week average, and a 24% decrease year - on - year [21]. - As of January 12, the cotton inspection volume in the 2025/26 season was 6.819 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.42% [36]. - As of Tuesday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 10,117 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou cotton yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 77 sheets [61]. Downstream Situation - The downstream demand is average. Spinning mill operation rates are stable - to - decreasing, and profitability is poor, which restricts the increase of cotton prices [4]. - Information on downstream raw material inventories (such as cotton in yarn mills and cotton yarn in weaving mills), finished - product inventories, and operating loads is presented in relevant charts, but specific numerical summaries are not clearly given in the text [41][44][46].