光大期货软商品日报-20260114

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.03% to 64.93 cents per pound on Tuesday, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased 1.34% to 14,760 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions rising by 19,206 lots to 837,200 lots. The spot price index of Cotton 3128B was 15,610 yuan per ton, up 245 yuan from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and the U.S. CPI data did not cool more than expected, with the U.S. dollar index back above 99. Although U.S. cotton export shipments remain low, there is some room for imagination in U.S. cotton exports due to the price difference between Zhengzhou cotton and U.S. cotton, which may support U.S. cotton prices. After three consecutive days of decline in the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, it increased in volume yesterday. Textile enterprises showed some willingness to buy back cotton after the price decline. Currently, the raw material inventory reserves of large, medium, and small textile enterprises vary significantly. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may face some divergence at the current level and mainly show wide - range fluctuations. In the long term, there are still things to look forward to on the policy side, and there may still be some upside space for cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: As of January 12, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 23.0955 million tons, a decrease of 5.7536 million tons or 19.94% compared with the same period last year; the sugar content in sugarcane was 11.77%, an increase of 0.02% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production rate was 9.403%, a decrease of 0.148% compared with the same period last year; the sugar production volume was 2.1717 million tons, a decrease of 0.5836 million tons or 21.18% compared with the same period last year. The spot quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups is in the range of 5,310 - 5,380 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,140 - 5,230 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton. Thailand's sugar - crushing progress is still lower than the same period last year, but the decline is narrowing. In the future, as production enters the middle stage, it is still expected to recover further. In China, the pressure of increased production and pre - holiday restocking purchases have temporarily reached a balance. In the future, there is cost support at the bottom and hedging pressure at the top. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate before the end of restocking [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 15 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis is 1023 yuan, down 209 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,500 yuan per ton, down 90 yuan, and the national spot price is 15,783 yuan per ton, down 74 yuan [3]. - Sugar: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 3 yuan, up 3 yuan; the main contract basis is 117 yuan, up 32 yuan. The spot price in Nanning is 5360 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the spot price in Liuzhou is 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On January 13, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,410, an increase of 642 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,707. The arrival prices of cotton in various regions of China were 15,500 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,727 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,891 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,908 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 49, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.8, down 0.2 from the previous day; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 51, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 33, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Sugar: On January 13, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5360 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price in Liuzhou was 5370 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 9,499, an increase of 560 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 2,069 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - Cotton: The report provides multiple charts including the closing price of the main cotton contract, the basis of the main cotton contract, the 3 - 5 spread of cotton, the internal - external price difference under the 1% tariff quota of cotton, the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of cotton, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [7][10][12]. - Sugar: The report provides multiple charts including the closing price of the main sugar contract, the basis of the main sugar contract, the 3 - 5 spread of sugar, and the warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of sugar [15][18]. 4. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on sugar research; Zhang Linglu, an analyst in charge of futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in the fundamental research of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy [20][21][22].