有色商品日报（2026年1月14日）-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Copper - Overnight, London copper rose and then fell, while domestic copper fluctuated widely. The import of refined copper in China remained at a loss. The US core inflation level slowed down compared to expectations, which laid the groundwork for the Fed to cut interest rates in the future. However, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in January was still relatively high. In China, the adjustment of export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaic cells might lead to a rush to export in the first quarter. LME, Comex, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, and BC copper inventories all increased. As copper prices rose again, downstream enterprises became more cautious in purchasing, and the trading was mainly based on rigid demand. The expansion of import losses and the opening of the export window were beneficial to export demand in the first quarter. The optimistic sentiment in the precious metal market continued to spread to the non - ferrous market. Although the short - term fundamentals weakened, the capital sentiment remained strong, and the expectation of a rush to export in the first quarter also supported copper prices. It was recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips but not to chase high prices [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina fluctuated weakly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated strongly. The price of SMM alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots narrowed. The ore reserves of alumina plants were high, and the short - term premium procurement sentiment was low, leading to a continuous decline in costs. After the end of environmental control, alumina production continued to increase, and with the addition of imports, the inventories of manufacturers and downstream continued to accumulate, and the logic of spot convergence to futures continued. Due to the reappearance of warehousing profits in Xinjiang, warehouse receipts might put new pressure on the market. After the end of environmental control and the cancellation of export tax rebates, photovoltaic enterprises rushed to export, and the operating rate of the processing end was expected to remain resilient, slightly alleviating the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. The divergence between macro and micro gradually converged, and the over - heating boost was rationally corrected. Aluminum prices continued to be at a high level, and the spot discount continued to narrow [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell by 2.63%, and Shanghai nickel fell by 0.33%. LME and SHFE nickel inventories decreased. Indonesia would adjust its nickel quota according to industry demand to support the price of its mineral products. From the fundamental perspective, as prices rose rapidly, the prices of products at all links in the industrial chain strengthened, and the production of primary nickel increased by 18.5% month - on - month to 37,200 tons. Hedging demand might put some pressure on the market price. The Indonesian policy stimulated the rise of nickel prices. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation and market sentiment. It was recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips near the cost line [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Copper: The US core inflation slowed down, and there was a rush - to - export expectation in the first quarter in China. Inventories increased, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the export window opened. It was recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina prices fell, aluminum prices rose. Cost decreased, inventory accumulated, and the processing end was expected to be resilient. Aluminum prices remained high [1][2]. - Nickel: Prices fell, inventories decreased. Indonesia adjusted the quota policy, primary nickel production increased, and it was recommended to buy on dips [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 710 yuan/ton, and the inventory of LME, Comex, and SHFE increased. The active contract import loss decreased by 260 yuan/ton [1][3]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 - 15 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [3]. - Aluminum: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai decreased, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and social inventory increased [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1700 yuan/ton, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased [4]. - Zinc: The main settlement price increased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.19 million tons [6]. - Tin: The main settlement price increased by 5.0%, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1001 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [7][8][9]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the historical trends of the spread between the first and second contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [13][17][18]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [20][22][24]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [26][28][30]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [32][34][36]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [39][41][43]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has more than a decade of experience in commodity research and has won many industry awards [46]. - Wang Heng: A finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia. He is mainly responsible for the research of aluminum and silicon, and has won relevant industry awards [46]. - Zhu Xi: A science master from the University of Warwick, UK. He focuses on the research of lithium and nickel, and has won relevant industry awards [47].