美国12月CPI点评：通胀扰动缓和，降息窗口待启

Inflation Data Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI remained at 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous month[2] - Month-on-month, the overall CPI growth was 0.3%, and the core CPI growth was 0.2%, consistent with pre-government shutdown levels[6] Sector Contributions to CPI - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year, with household and non-household food both rising by 0.7% month-on-month, marking a significant upward pressure on inflation[4] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, down from 4.1% in November, and a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, indicating a significant decline in energy price pressure[10] Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the CPI release, gold prices briefly rose before retreating, while U.S. stocks exhibited a "V" shaped recovery, and the dollar index strengthened slightly[5] - The probability of a rate cut in January is nearly 0%, while expectations for a rate cut in April have marginally increased but remain below 50%[5] Policy Outlook - The current monetary policy faces uncertainties, particularly regarding "political rate cuts" and the potential impact on the Federal Reserve's independence due to political pressures[17] - The next Federal Reserve chair's selection could lead to differing policy paths, with potential candidates showing contrasting views on rate cuts and balance sheet management[17] Future Inflation Considerations - The inflation trajectory may trend towards moderation, with commodity price pressures showing signs of easing and service inflation continuing to decline[8] - Key variables to monitor for 2026 include energy prices and wage growth, as geopolitical tensions and labor market dynamics could influence inflation outcomes[8]