美国2025年12月CPI数据：温和通胀助推双宽政策预期

Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and the previous month's value[2] - Core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations, while core CPI rose by 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%[2] Key Influences on Inflation - Food and energy prices saw a seasonal uptick due to winter demand and holiday effects, with household food prices rising by 0.7% month-on-month[2] - Core inflation was impacted by declining prices for new and used cars, with used car prices dropping to 1.6% year-on-year from 3.6%[2] - Core services inflation remained stable at 3.0% year-on-year, with entertainment prices increasing significantly due to holiday travel[2] Market Reactions and Predictions - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock markets rose, while short-term Treasury yields fell, and the dollar index experienced volatility[2] - The market is increasingly betting on a dual easing policy in 2026, influenced by both stable inflation and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve[2] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026 remains low, with a cautious outlook expected[2] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include tariffs leading to higher-than-expected inflation and weak retail data in spring, which could negatively impact the U.S. economy[2]