Group 1 - The economic and financial cycles are currently in a phase of upward resonance, with the second inventory cycle entering a proactive replenishment stage, likely transitioning to a destocking phase in major economies by 2026 [11] - The recommended asset allocation for 2026 is A-shares > Chinese bonds, US bonds > US stocks, as the stabilization of overall A-share corporate earnings supports further recovery [11] - The cumulative profit growth for all A non-financial companies in 2025 is expected to be in the range of 2.4%-5.5%, indicating a continued trend of profit recovery that will underpin the upward movement of the equity market [15][16] Group 2 - The current A-share environment is compared to the 2013-2014 period, highlighting similarities in macroeconomic conditions and structural trends, with a focus on technology and consumption sectors [27] - The technology sector is expected to continue contributing significant profit increments, particularly in the AI industry chain, which remains robust in demand [45] - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as electronics, media, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy, which are expected to outperform in 2026 due to various driving factors [48]
2026年度策略报告：趋势延续-20260114
Bank of China Securities·2026-01-14 06:49