市场快讯：地缘风险升温，燃料油价格抬升

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - With the escalation of the situation in Iran, the short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly, but it is greatly affected by the news, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The overall export volume of fuel oil is not significantly affected by the attacks on Russian energy facilities. The pattern of sanctions on Russian oil products is expected to remain in the short term, and there is no specific plan for a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [4]. - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors, and the overall contradiction is not prominent. Around March, when the existing raw material stocks of domestic asphalt refineries are exhausted, fuel oil is expected to fill a certain supply gap [4]. - The fuel oil shipment volume in Iran has shown a downward trend. The high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume in January is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous statistical cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is worrying, which may affect the global fuel oil supply - demand balance [4]. 3) Summary by Related Information Geopolitical Situation - US President Trump said that a 25% tariff will be imposed on the goods of countries doing business with Iran, and the US and France have notified their citizens to leave Iran. Trump also threatened to take "very tough action" if Iran executes anti - government protesters [3]. Market Situation - The short - term trend of crude oil - related products is oscillating strongly due to the situation in Iran, and the market is affected by news and may fluctuate repeatedly [4]. - The attack on Russian energy facilities has little impact on the overall export volume of fuel oil. The sanctions on Russian oil products are expected to remain in the short term, and there is no clear cease - fire plan between Russia and Ukraine [4]. Fuel Oil Fundamentals - The current fuel oil market has interwoven long and short factors with no prominent contradiction. Around March, fuel oil may fill the supply gap when domestic asphalt refineries exhaust their raw material stocks [4]. - Iranian fuel oil shipments are decreasing. The January high - sulfur fuel oil shipment volume is expected to be 490,000 tons, a decrease of 620,000 tons compared to the previous cycle. The supply stability of Iranian fuel oil is at risk, which may affect the global supply - demand balance [4].