铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the report. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US inflation data in December continued to decline moderately, with the CPI同比 at 2.7% and the core CPI同比 at 2.6%. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, but the Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Trump's interference in the Fed has increased market uncertainty. Domestically, the A - share market adjusted after a continuous rise, showing a shift from a general rise to differentiation [2][3]. - Precious metals: The US inflation data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and silver prices reached a new high. The physical delivery of COMEX silver was active, and the inventory decreased rapidly. Although the exchange strengthened supervision, silver prices are expected to remain relatively strong [4][5]. - Copper: The moderate decline in US inflation led to speculation about a possible interest rate cut in April. Trump's interference in the Fed increased market risk aversion, and the strike at a copper mine in Chile affected production. Copper prices are expected to remain strongly volatile at a high level [6][7]. - Aluminum: US inflation pressure was stable, but core indicators were slightly weak. High aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and social inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [8][9]. - Alumina: Supply was loose, and inventory was high, so alumina prices were under pressure and are expected to remain weak [10]. - Cast aluminum: Driven by cost, cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong, although downstream acceptance of high prices is limited [11]. - Zinc: The US core CPI cooled unexpectedly, and zinc prices were expected to fluctuate strongly, but the spot market was weak [12][13]. - Lead: Some refineries resumed production, and lead prices were expected to fluctuate as supply improved and consumption was under pressure [14]. - Tin: Supply - side disturbances and demand expectations supported tin prices, but there was a risk of adjustment due to crowded capital [15]. - Steel products: The demand for construction steel was in the off - season, and the supply - demand balance was weak. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate [16]. - Iron ore: Supply was strong and demand was weak, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. - Coking coal and coke: Steel enterprises did not respond to the price increase request of coke enterprises. The off - season demand led to limited fundamental support, and prices are expected to fluctuate [19]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The report was negative, and Brazilian soybean production was certain to be high. The auction of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, and prices are expected to fluctuate [20][21]. - Palm oil: The export demand for Malaysian palm oil improved, but the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy was uncertain. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [23][24]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: In December, the US CPI同比 was 2.7%, and the core CPI同比 was 2.6%. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, but the Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Trump's interference in the Fed increased market uncertainty. Gold and silver reached new highs, the US dollar rose, and industrial metals' upward momentum slowed [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market adjusted after a 17 - day consecutive rise. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4138 points, and the trading volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan. More than 3700 stocks fell. The margin trading balance reached a new high, and the market shifted from a general rise to differentiation [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuated, and silver prices reached a new high. The active physical delivery of COMEX silver and the rapid decline in inventory were important factors driving silver prices. The US inflation data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metal prices were supported [4][5]. Copper - Macro: The moderate decline in US inflation led to a 40%+ probability of an interest rate cut in April, but the Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude. Trump's interference in the Fed increased market risk aversion, and copper prices' center of gravity moved up [6]. - Industry: The labor negotiation at a copper mine in Chile was stagnant, and the strike affected production. The supply - demand situation and market sentiment jointly affected copper prices, which are expected to remain strongly volatile at a high level [6][7]. Aluminum - Macro: The World Bank raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 2.6%. The US inflation pressure was stable, and the market expected the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in January [8][9]. - Fundamental: High aluminum prices suppressed downstream demand, and social inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Alumina - Supply was loose as the environmental policy was relaxed in some areas, and the import window was open. Inventory was high at all levels, putting pressure on prices. Alumina prices are expected to remain weak [10]. Cast Aluminum - Driven by the rising cost of scrap aluminum, cast aluminum prices rose, but downstream acceptance of high prices was limited. Cast aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [11]. Zinc - The US core CPI cooled unexpectedly, and the market speculated about an interest rate cut in April. However, Fed officials' hawkish remarks and weak fundamentals led to a high - level shock in zinc prices. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [12][13]. Lead - Some refineries resumed production, and supply improved. Consumption was under pressure, and social inventory was expected to increase. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. Tin - Supply - side factors such as the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa, the slow resumption of mines in Myanmar, and Indonesia's export policy supported tin prices. However, due to the large short - term increase and crowded capital, there was a risk of adjustment [15]. Steel Products - The demand for construction steel was in the off - season, with a significant decline in apparent demand and a small increase in production. The supply - demand balance was weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate [16]. Iron Ore - Supply was strong due to high arrivals, and demand was stable. The overall supply - demand situation was supply - strong and demand - weak, and iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel enterprises did not respond to the price increase request of coke enterprises. Terminal demand was in the off - season, and the fundamental support was limited. Supply pressure increased, and prices are expected to fluctuate [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The report was negative, and Brazilian soybean production was certain to be high. The auction of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, which alleviated the supply shortage expectation in the first quarter. Prices are expected to fluctuate [20][21]. Palm Oil - Macro: The US core CPI in December was at a four - year low, and oil prices rose. - Fundamental: The export demand for Malaysian palm oil improved in early January, and the inventory reduction expectation was strengthened. However, the implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policy was uncertain. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [23][24].