资产配置专题：美元资产定价模式的变与不变

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economic cycle is marked by a shift in the pricing model of dollar assets, transitioning from economic growth to inflation levels following the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [2][5][12] - The imposition of tariffs in 2018 and 2025 has led to fluctuations in the dollar asset pricing model, with high tariffs impacting demand for U.S. Treasury bonds more significantly than the strength of the dollar [2][5][28] - The demand for U.S. Treasury bonds from overseas investors is driven by yield spreads and duration needs, while the demand for U.S. equities is influenced by differences in labor productivity due to intangible asset investments [2][6][28] Group 2 - Over the past 20 years, the demand for overseas dollar assets has shifted from risk diversification to a focus on labor productivity differences, which may lead to significant asset price bubbles [3][6] - The report highlights that the private sector's balance sheets and cash flows have improved, supporting actual consumption demand, which alters the macroeconomic risks faced by the U.S. economy [5][27] - The report emphasizes that the marginal risk switch is hindered, leading to a new pricing model for dollar assets that oscillates between unexpected inflation risks and unexpected economic growth downturn risks [5][27] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on the pricing of dollar assets is significant, as they are seen as a demand shock that hinders the return of offshore dollars, particularly affecting the demand for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [28][31] - The report notes that the structure of overseas demand for U.S. Treasury bonds has shifted from official institutions to the private sector, indicating a change in the dynamics of dollar asset demand [34][35] - The report also discusses how the imposition of tariffs has a more pronounced negative effect on the demand for U.S. equities compared to U.S. Treasury bonds, as it raises costs for the private sector and increases recession risks [42][44] Group 4 - The evolution of overseas dollar asset demand shows that private sector investors have increasingly replaced official institutions as the main holders of U.S. assets, driven by the pursuit of higher returns and duration supply [52][70] - The report highlights that the labor productivity differences between the U.S. and other developed economies have led to a sustained increase in overseas investment in U.S. equities, as U.S. companies benefit from higher profit margins [70][75] - The report concludes that the shift in overseas dollar asset demand reflects a correction of previous trends where emerging markets diversified away from dollar assets, returning to a focus on labor productivity differences [77][78]