aa纯碱期货日报-20260114

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: aa Soda Ash Futures Daily Report [2] - Report Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Li Xuanyi [5] - Futures Practitioner License Number: F03108920 [5] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0018403 [5] Group 2: Basic Data Spot Market (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the prices of heavy - duty soda ash in Central China, East China, and Shache were 1200, 1170, and 1160 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0, 0, and - 70. The price of heavy - duty soda ash in the Northwest was 860, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 20. The prices of light - duty soda ash in Central China, East China, North China, and the Northwest were 1120, 1140, 1220, and 890 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0, 20, 40, and 20. The light - heavy price difference in East China was 30 [4]. Futures Market (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts were all 0, with daily changes of - 1212, - 1273, and - 1136 and weekly changes of - 1271, - 1329, and - 1183. The main contract's open interest was 0, with a daily change of - 1183 and a weekly change of - 1041221. The main contract's trading volume was 0, with a daily change of - 1041362 and a weekly change of - 2265606. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, with a daily change of - 5213 and a weekly change of - 5276 [4]. Basis (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the basis of SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts were N/A [4]. Spread (Yuan/ton) - On January 14, 2026, the SA05 - 09, SA09 - 01, and SA01 - 05 spreads were N/A, with daily changes of 2, - 16, and 143 and weekly changes of 8, - 11, and 3 [4]. Fundamental Data (Weekly) - As of January 9, 2026, the soda ash production was 750,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. The capacity utilization rate was 84%, with a week - on - week increase of 6% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The soda ash factory inventory was 1.57 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 7%. The apparent demand was 590,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 19% and a year - on - year decrease of 15%. The profit of the combined soda process was - 40 Yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 13% and a year - on - year increase of 326%. The profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 58 Yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 39% and a year - on - year decrease of 16% [4]. Group 3: Market Judgment Market Conditions - According to Longzhong Information, the price of heavy - duty soda ash in Shache changed by - 25 to 1160 Yuan/ton, and that in Qinghai changed by 0 to 860 Yuan/ton. The price of light - duty soda ash in East China changed by 0 to 1140 Yuan/ton, and the light - heavy price difference was 38 Yuan/ton [7]. Important News - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen's production increased. Henan Jinshan's equipment was restored, and Zhongyuan's Phase III equipment had a short - term shutdown. The domestic soda ash market showed general trends, with small price fluctuations and narrow - range adjustments. The equipment was operating stably without maintenance. The downstream demand was tepid, mainly on - demand. The futures price declined, the sentiment slowed down, and the wait - and - see sentiment was strong. The soda ash market in Shache showed narrow - range fluctuations, the futures price declined at a low level, and there was appropriate low - price trading in the market. The current spot - futures basis quotes are as follows: Hebei warehouse pickup 03 - 40 or 05 - 50 to 80, Shache delivery 05 - 50, Hubei warehouse pickup 05 - 50, Inner Mongolia factory pickup 05 - 300 to 320, Shandong factory pickup 05 - 30 [8]. Logical Analysis - The soda ash trend was weak, with more declines than increases in commodities. The daily production was 111,000 tons. Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen's production increased. Henan Jinshan's equipment was restored, and Zhongyuan's Phase III equipment had a short - term shutdown. The inventory decreased slightly on Monday. As of now, 32% of downstream glass enterprises' raw material samples had a factory inventory of 23.91 days, an increase of 3.2 days. On the cost side, the theoretical profit of China's combined soda process (double - ton) was - 40 Yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of China's ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 Yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. With poor fundamentals, the high - inventory pressure will be tested by pre - Spring Festival rigid - demand purchases. Looking at a longer cycle and waiting for an opportunity to short, the market will fluctuate widely this week [9]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely this week and wait for an opportunity to short. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices for far - month contracts [10] Group 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include charts of soda ash basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipt number, main contract open interest, main contract trading volume, weekly production, factory inventory, apparent demand, ammonia - soda process profit, and combined soda process profit [13][16]