银河期货航运日报-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC futures market continues to show a volatile and weak trend, with significant divergence in the market regarding the intensity of cargo rush. The spot freight rate has reached an inflection point, and attention should be paid to the subsequent booking situation. The cancellation of export tax - rebates before April 1st is expected to lead to a short - term cargo rush, which is favorable for near - term contracts and unfavorable for far - term contracts. Geopolitical factors and seasonal patterns also have an impact on the market [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - On January 14th, the EC2604 contract closed at 1230.5 points, up 2.57% from the previous day. The SCFIS European line index on January 14th was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% week - on - week, in line with market expectations. Mainstream shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes for the second half of January. The spot freight rate has shown an inflection point, and the cargo volume is still at a high level but may start to decline seasonally. Geopolitical factors such as the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea and US tariffs on Iran also affect the market sentiment [5][6] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to many short - term disturbances and divergence in the cargo rush intensity, it is recommended to wait and see [7] - Arbitrage: Maintain the idea of buying on dips for the 6 - 10 positive spread [8] 2. Industry News - On January 13, 2026, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings Co., Ltd. (601919) announced the order of twelve 18,000 TEU container ships and six 3000 TEU container ships. The Hamas delegation has arrived in Cairo, Egypt, for cease - fire negotiations [9][10] 3. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including SCFIS European and US West line indexes, SCFI comprehensive index, container freight rates for different routes, and the basis of EC02 and EC04 contracts [12][14][17]