美国 12 月 CPI 点评：通胀扰动缓和，降息窗口待启

Inflation Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while the core CPI remained at 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous month[2] - Month-on-month, the overall CPI growth was 0.3%, and the core CPI growth was 0.2%, consistent with pre-government shutdown levels[6] Sector Analysis - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year, with household and non-household food both rising by 0.7% month-on-month, marking a significant upward pressure on inflation[4] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, down from 4.1% in November, and a month-on-month increase of only 0.3%, indicating a significant decline in energy price pressure[10] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, gold prices briefly rose before retreating, while U.S. stocks exhibited a "V" shaped recovery, and the dollar index strengthened slightly[5] - The probability of a rate cut in January is nearly zero, while expectations for a rate cut in April have marginally increased but remain below 50%[5] Policy Outlook - The direction for rate cuts remains unchanged, but the timing is likely to be delayed, with the first cut expected around June, potentially by 25 basis points[17] - Current uncertainties include discussions around "political rate cuts" and the potential impact of the next Federal Reserve chairperson on policy direction[17]