玉米淀粉日报-20260114

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. corn report significantly increased the production, leading to a weakening of U.S. corn prices today. However, the global corn supply pressure has decreased, limiting the downside space of U.S. corn prices. The in - quota tariff for U.S. corn is 11%, and for sorghum is 12%. The import profit of foreign corn has risen, with the February Brazilian import price at 2,122 yuan. [4] - The domestic corn market shows different trends in different regions. The spot price in the northeast is relatively strong due to low supply and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the price in North China is stable with increasing supply. The price difference between northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat - corn price difference is still large, and corn remains cost - effective. The domestic livestock farming demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing, so the short - term spot price of corn is relatively stable. The market is currently concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of corn in the northeast before the Spring Festival and the inventory building of downstream enterprises. [4][6] - In the starch market, the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is stable. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,750 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 1.1 million tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 21.5%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are still strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot price is also strong, but enterprise profitability has declined. It is expected that the short - term 03 starch contract on the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range. [7] - For trading strategies, the U.S. corn report is bearish, and U.S. corn is expected to continue bottom - oscillating. The 03 corn contract still has room to fall, and the 03 starch contract is expected to oscillate. For trading, the 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. The short positions of 03 corn should be closed at night, and the 03 starch contract should be closed for observation at night. The 35 starch contract should start reverse arbitrage. [8][9] - For corn options, a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations is recommended. [11] 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Data - Futures Market: - For corn futures, the closing price of C2601 is 2,300 yuan, up 2 yuan or 0.09%; C2605 is 2,275 yuan, down 2 yuan or - 0.09%; C2509 is 2,295 yuan, up 4 yuan or 0.17%. The trading volume of C2601 is 416, with no change in trading volume; the trading volume of C2605 is 140,645, a decrease of 23.82%; the trading volume of C2509 is 9,236, an increase of 16.90%. The open interest of C2601 is 8,433, a decrease of 8.20%; the open interest of C2605 is 627,188, an increase of 0.93%; the open interest of C2509 is 54,740, an increase of 2.74%. [2] - For corn starch futures, the closing price of CS2601 is 2,539 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 0.04%; CS2605 is 2,580 yuan, down 11 yuan or - 0.43%; CS2509 is 2,614 yuan, down 5 yuan or - 0.19%. The trading volume of CS2601 is 0, a decrease of 100%; the trading volume of CS2605 is 17,549, a decrease of 25.12%; the trading volume of CS2509 is 292, an increase of 26.96%. The open interest of CS2601 is 2,400, with no change; the open interest of CS2605 is 56,116, an increase of 4.42%; the open interest of CS2509 is 2,752, a decrease of 4.31%. [2] - Spot Market and Basis: - For corn, the spot prices in different regions are: 2,150 yuan in Qinggang, 2,180 yuan in Songyuan Jiji, 2,304 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao, 2,276 yuan in Shouguang, 2,335 yuan in Jinzhou Port, 2,420 yuan in Nantong Port, and 2,460 yuan in Guangdong Port. The price in Jinzhou Port decreased by 5 yuan, and the price in Guangdong Port decreased by 10 yuan, while the others remained unchanged. The basis is - 145 yuan in Qinggang, - 115 yuan in Songyuan Jiji, 9 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao, - 19 yuan in Shouguang, 60 yuan in Jinzhou Port, 125 yuan in Nantong Port, and 165 yuan in Guangdong Port. [2] - For starch, the spot prices are: 2,730 yuan for Longfeng, 2,700 yuan for COFCO, 2,700 yuan for Yihai (Heilongjiang), 2,860 yuan for Yufeng, 2,800 yuan for Jinyu, 2,900 yuan for Zhucheng Xingmao, and 2,750 yuan for Hengren Industry and Trade. The price of Zhucheng Xingmao increased by 20 yuan, while the others remained unchanged. The basis is 150 yuan for Longfeng, 120 yuan for COFCO, 120 yuan for Yihai (Heilongjiang), 280 yuan for Yufeng, 220 yuan for Jinyu, 320 yuan for Zhucheng Xingmao, and 170 yuan for Hengren Industry and Trade. [2] - Price Spreads: - For corn inter - delivery spreads, the spread of C01 - C05 is 25 yuan, up 4 yuan; the spread of C05 - C09 is - 20 yuan, down 6 yuan; the spread of C09 - C01 is - 5 yuan, up 2 yuan. [2] - For starch inter - delivery spreads, the spread of CS01 - CS05 is - 41 yuan, up 10 yuan; the spread of CS05 - CS09 is - 34 yuan, down 6 yuan; the spread of CS09 - CS01 is 75 yuan, down 4 yuan. [2] - For cross - variety spreads, the spread of CS09 - C09 is 319 yuan, down 9 yuan; the spread of CS01 - C01 is 239 yuan, down 3 yuan; the spread of CS05 - C05 is 305 yuan, down 9 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Outlook - Corn: The U.S. corn report is bearish, but the global supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. The northeast corn price is strong, and the North China price is stable. The price difference between wheat and corn is large, and corn has cost - effectiveness. The livestock farming demand is stable, and the downstream inventory is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure in the northeast before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory building. [4][6] - Starch: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn price in Shandong is stable. The starch inventory has decreased. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are strong, and the enterprise profitability has declined. The short - term 03 starch contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: The 03 U.S. corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. The short positions of 03 corn should be closed at night, and the 03 starch contract should be closed for observation at night. [8] - Arbitrage: The 35 starch contract should start reverse arbitrage. [9] 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations. Two option contracts are listed: C2605 - P - 2240.DCE with an underlying price of 2,275 yuan, a closing price of 33 yuan, and an implied volatility of 3.0; C2603 - P - 2200.DCE with an underlying price of 2,272 yuan, a closing price of 10.5 yuan, and an implied volatility of 4.0. [11] 3.5 Related Attachments - There are six figures in total, showing the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 05 contract spread from 2022 to 2026. [13][14][17]