瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current national cotton inspection in the domestic market is accelerating, and the market supply is relatively sufficient. With the quota issuance, port pick - up has increased, and Brazilian cotton has started to arrive in a concentrated manner, leading to a continuous increase in inventory. As of the week of January 8th, the inventory at major ports of imported cotton increased by 0.55% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 39.95 tons. The downstream textile mills have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level, and some weaving factories may have early holidays. However, due to the general expectation of a decline in cotton planting area in the new year, it provides some support for the cotton market. The market is waiting for the 2026 cotton target subsidy policy. Additionally, the January USDA supply - demand report is bullish, and the center of short - term cotton prices is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro and policy factors [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,835 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: -177,257 lots, up 5,200 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: -1,722 lots, up 217 lots - Cotton main contract open interest: 842,369 lots, up 5,210 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest: 15,756 lots, down 276 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity: 8,836 lots, up 426 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity: 70 lots, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex: 3128B): 15,970 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s): 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff): 12,616 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty): 13,735 yuan/ton, unchanged - Imported cotton yarn (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s) arrival price: 21,026 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; imported cotton yarn (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s) arrival price: 22,353 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,330 yuan/ton, down 187 yuan - National industrial inventory of cotton: 85 tons, up 6.5 tons; national commercial inventory of cotton: 468.36 tons, up 175.3 tons - Cotton import volume (monthly): 12 tons, up 3 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons - Imported cotton profit: 2,235 yuan/ton, up 187 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days - Monthly cloth output: 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; monthly yarn output: 203.9 tons, up 3.8 tons - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export amount: 11,593,686 million US dollars, up 5,902,055,700 US dollars; monthly textile yarns, fabrics and products export amount: 12,275,733,101,731.408 million US dollars [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options: 13.12%, down 0.23%; implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options: 13.12%, down 0.22% - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.49%, up 0.15%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.98%, up 0.14% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of 24:00 on January 12, 2025, the cumulative notarized inspection of cotton processed by national cotton processing enterprises in the 2025/26 season was 30,208,714 bales, totaling 6,819,192 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.20%. The cumulative notarized inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 6,592,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.45% - ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Tuesday, supported by the USDA supply - demand report. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.03 cents, or 0.05%, at 64.88 cents per pound [2]