瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall data of the domestic sugar market is neutral to bearish, with a year - on - year decrease in both sugar production and sales in Guangxi in February, while Yunnan has a faster sugar production progress and slightly better sales than the same period last year. However, the market's expectation of the decline in Brazil's export prospects supports the sugar market, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5299 yuan/ton, with a change of 46; the main contract position is 428965 hands, a decrease of 984. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 240, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 65851 hands, an increase of 2305. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1829, a decrease of 240. The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 4086 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15. The estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 5112 yuan/ton, and the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5178 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Nanning, Guangxi is 5370 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; the spot price in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60. The sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24. The cumulative sales of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons, a decrease of 593.35. The cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons, a decrease of 237.4. The total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 291.3 million tons, an increase of 15 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 212 yuan/ton, an increase of 20; the price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) is 1238 yuan/ton, an increase of 19. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota and outside the quota (50% tariff) is also provided. The monthly import volume of sugar is 44 million tons, a decrease of 31, and the cumulative import volume is 434 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 130.3 million tons, and the monthly output of soft drinks is 1045.7 million tons, a decrease of 50.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for sugar is 9.24%, a decrease of 0.22; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option is also 9.24%, a decrease of 0.22. The 20 - day historical volatility is 10.83%, an increase of 0.01; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.63%, an increase of 0.09 [2] 3.7 Industry News - According to Unica, in the first half of December 2025, sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 5.92 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.8%; sugar production was 254,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28.80%. As of December 16, 2025/26 crushing season (April 2025 - March 2026), the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 598 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, the cumulative sugar production was 40.158 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%, and the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.91%, 2.72 percentage points higher than 48.19% in the same period last year. ICE's most actively traded March raw sugar futures rose on Tuesday due to the decline in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of December [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary and Prompt Attention - The futures closed up 0.05 cents or 0.30%, at 14.89 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of the main producing areas showed that in December, the monthly sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431,000 tons, and the monthly sugar sales was 795,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551,800 tons. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan was 392,300 tons, higher than 326,900 tons in the same period of the previous crushing season; the cumulative sugar sales in Yunnan was 281,400 tons, compared with 267,100 tons in the same period last year [2]