瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is in the peak season but has declined from the high level. The supply - demand shows a weak balance, and the live pig price continues the volatile trend. The live pig 2603 contract rose in the afternoon, closing up 1.82% [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the futures main contract for live pigs is 12,010 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 215; the main contract position volume is 168,526 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 7,459; the number of warehouse receipts is 855 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 51,836 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 649 [2] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 13,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; in Siping, Jilin is 12,400 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis of live pigs is 990 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 115 [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 43,680 ten thousand heads, with a month - on - month increase of 1,233; the inventory of breeding sows is 3,990 ten thousand heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 45 [2] Industry Situation - The year - on - year increase of CPI is 0.8%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,120 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 20; the spot price of corn is 2,357.55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.59; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 905.87, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.39; the monthly output of feed is 29.779 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 209,000; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,429 yuan/head, with no change; the breeding profit of purchasing piglets is - 2.31 yuan/head, with a month - on - month increase of 46.04; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs is - 11.54 yuan/head, with a month - on - month increase of 23.05; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10,000; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 13.5 yuan/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 39.57 million heads, with a month - on - month increase of 1.23 million; the monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of social consumer goods is 605.7 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 85.8 billion [2] Industry News - Mysteel data shows that on January 14, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 148,178, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02%. The January sample enterprise slaughter plan decreased month - on - month. Currently, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms has recovered compared with that after the Spring Festival, but the overall slaughter volume is average [2]