美国12月CPI点评：同比温和环比偏强

Inflation Overview - The US CPI for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, and the previous value was also 2.7%[2] - The seasonally adjusted CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with forecasts[2] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.7%[2] Key Contributors to Inflation - Food prices were a significant driver, rising 0.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.10 percentage points to overall inflation[2] - Energy prices showed mixed results, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase contributing about 0.02 percentage points, while gasoline prices fell by 0.5%[2] - Core inflation was primarily driven by service prices, which increased by 0.2% month-on-month, contributing 0.16 percentage points[2] Housing and Services Impact - Housing costs remained elevated, rising 0.4% month-on-month and contributing about 0.14 percentage points to inflation, accounting for nearly half of the overall increase[2] - Medical services rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while leisure services increased by 1.8%, indicating a broadening of service inflation[2] Market Implications - The inflation results suggest a moderate outlook, with little change in market expectations for interest rate cuts; the probability of a rate cut in April increased from approximately 38% to 42% following the data release[2] - The current core inflation remains above 2.6%, indicating that the Federal Reserve may maintain rates in March and consider cuts between April and June based on upcoming data[2] Risks to Inflation Outlook - Risks include the potential for service prices to decline less than expected, a directional reversal in energy prices, and renewed supply chain disruptions[5]