Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2026-01-14 08:49Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical changes are expected to usher in an "Oil Shipping Era" [3] - The U.S. military action against Venezuela may promote the compliance of Venezuelan oil trade, with short-term impacts limiting exports and shifting demand to compliant regions, equivalent to a demand for 19 VLCCs [4] - If U.S. sanctions on Venezuela are lifted, oil exports could reach 2.4 million barrels per day, requiring 141 VLCCs [4] - Iran's oil exports face dual pressures from domestic unrest and U.S. threats, with potential demand shifts to compliant markets equating to a need for 38 VLCCs [4] - Russia's oil exports are maintained through shadow fleets, with potential sanctions impacting 1.5 million barrels per day, equivalent to 36 VLCCs [4] - The new geopolitical landscape highlights the strategic value of oil shipping, with demand expected to improve in the short to medium term [4] Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact on Oil Shipping - The geopolitical situation is reshaping global oil trade flows, expanding the compliant oil shipping market [4] - Short-term supply changes due to geopolitical conflicts may support shipping rates [4] - The dual logic of trade flow restructuring and compliance transformation is expected to drive demand in the oil shipping industry [4] Demand Projections - Venezuela: - Short-term demand shift due to transport restrictions: 19 VLCCs - Medium-term demand if sanctions are lifted: 46 VLCCs - Long-term potential peak exports: 141 VLCCs [4] - Iran: - Short-term demand shift due to unrest: 38 VLCCs - Long-term potential peak exports: 57 VLCCs [4] - Russia: - Potential sanctions impact: 36 VLCCs - If sanctions are lifted, demand could increase significantly [4]