瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and slightly increasing demand. It is recommended to take short - long positions at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and cautious demand. It is recommended to trade in a volatile manner with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and in the off - season of demand. It is recommended to trade in a volatile manner with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 24,595 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 110 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 221 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts were 47,425 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum inventory was 494,000 tons, down 1,825 tons [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 65,487 hands, up 17,640 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.69, up 0.04 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 23,380 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 68,831 tons, down 30 tons [2] Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 24,670 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 24,200 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan [2] - The basis of electrolytic aluminum was 75 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 820 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium and discount was - 120 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount was 22.09 US dollars/ton, up 11.69 US dollars [2] - The basis of alumina was - 225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The output of alumina was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 705.96 million tons, down 24.27 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste was 18,850 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal waste was 18,300 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The export volume of alumina was 17.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 23.24 million tons, up 4.31 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2] - The output of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54.50 million tons, down 2.50 million tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.40 million tons, down 1.60 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 3.06 million tons, down 0.03 million tons [2] Downstream and Application - The completed production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2] - The output of aluminum alloy was 173.90 million tons, unchanged; the output of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 21.08%, down 0.81%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 18.08%, down 0.05% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 28.86%, down 0.0274; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.71, down 0.0183 [2] Industry News - In December 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.6%, both remaining the same as the previous value. The market expects the Fed to keep the policy rate unchanged in January 2026 with a probability of 95% [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing active participation in industry rule - making and self - regulatory mechanism construction [2] - The President of the St. Louis Fed said there was little reason to further relax monetary policy in the short term [2] - Shanghai introduced 28 measures to promote the quality improvement and efficiency increase of the service industry and the expansion of consumption [2] - In 2025, the trading volume of the Chinese second - hand car market exceeded 20 million for the first time, reaching 20.108 million, with a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [2]