瑞达期货鸡蛋产业日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The continuous losses at the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chicken culls. The laying hen inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. The current enthusiasm for replenishment at the breeding end is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the recent continuous recovery of egg prices has slightly slowed down the enthusiasm for culling old chickens. The high production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, the near - month contract may be in a wide - range low - level shock state. The far - month contract is expected to perform better than the near - month contract under the expectation of declining production capacity, and it is advisable to try to go long on the far - month contract with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3007 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 17; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for eggs is - 11868 hands; the egg futures spread between May and September is - 400 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 1; the egg futures open interest of the active contract is 264783 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 7366; the registered warehouse receipt volume for eggs is 0 hands, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.5 yuan/jin, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the basis (spot - futures) is 493 yuan/500 kilograms, with a month - on - month increase of 7 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 112.03, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.21; the national culled laying hen index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 101.18, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.26; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas (weekly, yuan/feather) is 2.9, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the national new - hatched chick index (monthly, 2015 = 100) is 93.62, with a month - on - month increase of 26.53; the average price of laying hen compound feed (weekly, yuan/kg) is 2.8, with no change; the breeding profit of laying hens (weekly, yuan/head) is - 0.29, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1; the average price of culled chickens in the main production areas (weekly, yuan/kg) is 8.16, with a month - on - month increase of 0.26; the culled chicken age in the whole country (monthly, days) is 500, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork (daily, yuan/kg) is 18.06, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables (daily, yuan/kg) is 5.51, with no change; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens (daily, yuan/kg) is 17.78, with a month - on - month increase of 0.07; the weekly inventory in the circulation link (weekly, days) is 1.21, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09; the weekly inventory in the production link (weekly, days) is 1.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.09; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs (monthly, tons) is 13394.53, with a month - on - month increase of 178.74 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas (weekly, tons) is 7377, with no change [2] 3.6 Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 7.09 yuan/kg, up 0.03 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 6.55 yuan/kg, up 0.04 from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 7.47 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 7.04 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2]