瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260114

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of January 14th, China's methanol port inventory decreased significantly due to a small total unloading volume, but the overall volume remains at a relatively high level. Short - term attention should be paid to the unloading speed of foreign vessels and changes in提货量. [3] - Although the load of many MTO enterprises in East China was reduced last week, the load of inland enterprises increased, resulting in a slight increase in the weekly average operation of domestic methanol - to - olefins. With the implementation of the later East China MTO maintenance plan, there is an expectation of a load reduction in the short - term MTO industry. [3] - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol was 0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The open interest of the main methanol contract was 823,784 lots, a decrease of 6,246 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 146,595 lots, an increase of 18,580 lots. [3] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts was 7,655, with no change. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2255 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1850 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton. [3] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 33 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [3] - The CFR price of methanol at China's main port was 268 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, with no change. [3] - The FOB price in Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, with no change; the price difference between China's main port and Southeast Asia was - 54 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.38 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 US dollars/million British thermal units. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 1.1233 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 76,200 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 413,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,400 tons. [3] - The methanol import profit was - 32.17 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.22 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [3] - The inventory of inland enterprises was 450,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,200 tons; the methanol enterprise operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 34.07%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.17 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 2.96%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points. [3] - The acetic acid operating rate was 76.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.31 percentage points; the MTBE operating rate was 67.57%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points. [3] - The olefin operating rate was 88.06%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 1074 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.81 percentage points. [3] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 25.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.46 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 25.14%, a week - on - week increase of 1.44 percentage points. [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 14th, the inventory of China's sampled methanol production enterprises was 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.71%; the orders to be delivered by sampled enterprises were 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.13%. [3] - As of January 14th, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 17,500 tons. [3] - Recently, the production loss due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the production increase due to recovery, resulting in an overall decrease in production. [3] - As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.62%. [3]