瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall: The report analyzes the current situation of the rapeseed industry, including futures and spot markets, upstream and downstream conditions, and industry news. It points out that the market is affected by factors such as international trade relations, supply and demand, and USDA reports [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: The domestic supply of rapeseed meal is tight in the near - term due to import restrictions and oil - mill shutdowns. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed, the marginal supply increases. The USDA report is bearish, dragging down the market. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and fluctuates with soybean meal [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: Domestic oil mills are shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, which supports the price and keeps the basis at a high level. But the expected arrival of Australian rapeseed and the possible improvement of China - Canada trade relations increase the long - term supply pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed changed. For example, the closing price of rapeseed oil was 8949 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - Positions and Warehouse Receipts: The positions and net buying volumes of the top 20 futures contracts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed, and the number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil decreased [2]. Spot Market - Prices: Spot prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and related substitutes such as soybean oil, palm oil, and soybean meal changed. For example, the spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [2]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal futures and the price spreads between different varieties changed [2]. Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: Global and domestic rapeseed production and import data are presented. For example, the global rapeseed production forecast is 95.27 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons [2]. - Profit and Operation: The import rapeseed crushing profit increased, and the weekly starting rate of imported rapeseed was 0% [2]. Industry Situation - Imports and Stocks: The import volumes of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed changed, and the inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and other regions also changed [2]. - Operation and Sales: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil decreased, and that of rapeseed meal remained unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - Production and Consumption: The production of feed and edible vegetable oil and the retail sales of catering services changed [2]. Option Market - Volatility: The implied and historical volatilities of call and put options for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal changed [2]. Industry News - Futures Movement: ICE rapeseed futures rose following the increase in CBOT soybean oil futures, and the market awaited the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [2]. - USDA Report: The USDA monthly supply - demand report was bearish, with increased soybean production forecasts in the US and Brazil [2]. Key Points of Concern - The opening rate of rapeseed oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions, as well as the development of China - Canada trade relations are the key points to watch [2].