瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260114

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of urea production enterprises increased, with the production reaching 137.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 million tons or 0.92%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%, and the upward trend continued. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of production increase was relatively high [2]. - The current agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, with overall trading atmosphere being tepid. Downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods and mostly adopt a just - in - time purchasing strategy. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [2]. - As the downstream compound fertilizer industrial demand continues to advance, local agricultural demand shows an increasing trend. Some urea enterprises achieve a balance between production and sales, and the shipment speed of some enterprises accelerates. However, as the urea price rises, the downstream's trend of chasing price increases may slow down, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited [2]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1770 - 1830 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1814 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Zhengzhou urea was 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 253,756 lots, a week - on - week increase of 23,507 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea was - 21,087 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 4,047 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 13,355 lots, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Shandong were 1740 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the prices in Jiangsu and Anhui were 1750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was - 74 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the main Chinese ports were 367.5 dollars/ton and 402.5 dollars/ton respectively, with no week - on - week change [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory was 140,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory was 1.0222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 83.22%, a week - on - week increase of 2.93%; the daily urea output was 195,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,700 tons [2]. - The urea export volume was 600,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600,000 tons; the monthly urea output was 6,000,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 37.17%, a week - on - week increase of 3.28%; the operating rate of melamine was 54.35%, a week - on - week increase of 6.7% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 244 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 152 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 28,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,900 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 14, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 986,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,100 tons or 3.53% [2]. - As of January 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,000 tons or 18.60%. The quantity of goods leaving the ports increased this week, and some ports were loading and departing. In addition, the pace of manufacturers' goods collection at ports was slow, and most ports remained at a low level under the constraints of quotas and other conditions [2]. - As of January 8, the resumption of some previously overhauled devices drove the increase in domestic urea production. There were no plans for enterprise device shutdowns this week, and the devices of two shut - down enterprises might resume production [2]. 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].