2025年12月美国CPI数据点评：通胀，风险暂时可控

Overview - The overall CPI for December 2025 in the U.S. was 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, meeting expectations, while the core CPI was slightly weaker at 2.6% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, below the expected 2.7% and 0.3% respectively[1][5]. - The market reaction to the CPI data was muted, with a slight increase in "rate cut trades" but overall performance remained stable[1][5]. Inflation Structure - Core goods inflation in December weakened significantly, primarily due to vehicle inflation, with new and used car prices showing 0% and -1.1% month-on-month respectively[2][14]. - Core services inflation saw an uptick, particularly in rent and super core services, with rent CPI increasing by 0.4% month-on-month compared to 0.2% in September[2][14]. Outlook for 2026 - Inflation in the first half of 2026 may remain sticky, but a "de-inflation" phase is expected in the second half as tax cuts take effect, potentially boosting consumer income and spending[3][25]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cut timing may be delayed, as inflation is not currently the primary concern, and any decision will depend on economic data trends[3][30]. Risks - Potential risks include escalating geopolitical conflicts, unexpected economic slowdown in the U.S., and the Federal Reserve adopting a more hawkish stance if inflation proves more resilient than anticipated[3][36].