Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.03%, showing a pattern of decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand is weak, with the fundamentals operating weakly. Steel prices in the off - season continue to face pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. Subsequently, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily decrease of 0.09%, also showing decreasing volume and increasing open interest. At present, hot - rolled coil supply is continuously increasing while demand has slightly declined. Both supply and demand are at high levels, and the supply - increasing and demand - weakening fundamentals are operating weakly, putting pressure on prices. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. It is expected that the price trend will maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily increase of 0.06%, with decreasing volume and increasing open interest. Currently, iron ore supply remains at a high level, and the improvement in demand is limited. The fundamentals of the iron ore market have not improved, and inventories are rising at a high level, with weak upward drivers. The relatively positive factor is the pre - holiday restocking. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5%. The total value of imports and exports reached a new high, and China will continue to maintain its position as the world's largest goods trading country [7]. - In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached new historical highs, with production at 34.531 million vehicles and sales at 34.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. It has ranked first in the world for 17 consecutive years. New energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 16 million vehicles, accounting for over 50% of domestic new vehicle sales. Automobile exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, and exports of new energy vehicles reached 2.615 million vehicles, doubling year - on - year [8]. - In 2025, China exported 119.019 million tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%, and imported 517,000 tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. From January to December, China imported 6.059 million tons of steel, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. In December, China imported 119.647 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 8.2%. From January to December, the cumulative import of iron ore and its concentrates was 1.258709 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [9]. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,270 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,341 yuan. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan, in Tianjin was 3,190 yuan, and the national average price was 3,308 yuan. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,970 yuan. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,110 yuan. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 821 yuan. - Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis): The price was 782 yuan. - Ocean freight: Australia was 7.56 yuan, and Brazil was 20.83 yuan. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 108.19 yuan. - Iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR): The price was 108.20 yuan [10]. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,162 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 764,719 contracts, a decrease of 73,160 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,691,461 contracts, an increase of 3,518 contracts [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,306 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09%. The trading volume was 309,018 contracts, a decrease of 95,043 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1,448,875 contracts, an increase of 8,625 contracts [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 821.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 238,116 contracts, a decrease of 73,505 contracts compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 662,688 contracts, an increase of 9,381 contracts [14]. Related Charts - Steel inventories: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory) [16]. - Iron ore inventories: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (inventory and its monthly change, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [24]. - Steel mill production: Included charts of the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit - loss situation of 75 independent electric arc furnace steel mills for building materials [31]. 后市研判 - Rebar: The supply - demand pattern has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory. Building steel mills are continuously resuming production, and the weekly output of rebar has increased by 28,200 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and has room for further increase. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons month - on - month. High - frequency transactions have rebounded due to holiday factors, but both are still at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. Subsequently, rebar prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [41]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much. Plate steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil has increased by 10,000 tons month - on - month. Supply continues to rise and is at a relatively high level, and the high inventory level has not alleviated the supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency daily transactions are at a low level. The relatively positive factor is that the production of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, providing support for hot - rolled coil demand, but industrial contradictions are accumulating, and export performance is average, so there are concerns about demand. It is expected that the price trend will maintain an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern is operating weakly, and inventories are continuously rising. Steel mills are starting to resume production, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has rebounded from a low level. Last week, the average daily hot metal output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills increased month - on - month, but the overall increase was not large. The profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the off - season steel market can hardly accommodate a large - scale increase in production, so the room for improvement in iron ore demand is limited and the positive effect is weak. Meanwhile, port arrivals are continuously increasing, and the shipments of miners are weakly stable, both at relatively high levels. Overseas iron ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply is also rebounding, so iron ore supply remains at a relatively high level. Under the game of long and short factors, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and the restocking situation of steel mills should be monitored [43].
钢材&铁矿石日报2026年1月14日：现实矛盾有限，钢矿震荡运行-20260114
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2026-01-14 09:48