持续性驱动有限，煤焦维持低位震荡：煤焦日报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 14, the coke main contract closed at 1,738.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.28%. The downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production this week, but the resumption speed is slow, and the improvement of coke fundamentals is limited. The relative positive lies in the strong supply - side expectation of upstream coking coal. After entering the new year, the upward driving forces such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage and replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, driving coke to be sorted at a low level [5][30]. - On January 14, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,196.5 points, with an intraday decline of 1.52%. After the New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are hard to show obvious improvement, but the positive driving forces such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage and replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production reduction during the Spring Festival are gradually emerging. Multiple long and short factors are intertwined, driving coking coal futures to adjust in a low - level shock [6][31]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Information - In 2025, China imported 49,027.0 tons of coal and lignite, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In December, China imported 5,859.7 tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 1,454.4 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 33.0% [8]. - On January 14, Mongolia's ER company conducted an online auction of coking coal. The starting price of Mongolian No. 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and the listed quantity of 12,800 tons was all sold at a transaction price of 915 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton lower than the previous auction on the 12th. The supply location is the supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port in China, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being April 14, 2026 [9]. Spot Market - Coke: The latest quoted price of the flat - closing price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,490 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.36% [5][30]. - Coking coal: The latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1,215.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 9.46% [6][31]. Futures Market - Coke: The main contract closed at 1,738.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.28%. The trading volume was 22,405, with a volume difference of 2,021. The position was 38,411 lots, with a position difference of +472 compared with the previous trading day [13]. - Coking coal: The main contract closed at 1,196.5 points, with an intraday decline of 1.52%. The trading volume was 1,257,220, with a volume difference of - 35,038. The position was 501,298 lots, with a position difference of - 3,199 compared with the previous trading day [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to coke and coking coal inventories, including the inventories of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventories, 247 steel mill coking plant inventories, total coke inventories, mine - mouth coking coal inventories, full - sample independent coking plant coking coal inventories, port coking coal inventories, 247 sample steel mill coking coal inventories, as well as other charts such as domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. Market Outlook - Coke: The downstream steel mills are gradually resuming production, but the resumption speed is slow, and the improvement of coke fundamentals is limited. The relative positive lies in the strong supply - side expectation of upstream coking coal. After entering the new year, the upward driving forces are gradually emerging, driving coke to be sorted at a low level [5][30]. - Coking coal: After the New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are hard to show obvious improvement, but the positive driving forces are gradually emerging. Multiple long and short factors are intertwined, driving coking coal futures to adjust in a low - level shock [6][31].