原油现货市场日报-20260114

Report Information - Report Date: January 14, 2026 [1] - Report Type: Crude Oil Spot Market Daily Report [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03108405 [2] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021537 [2] Core Views - The market is currently concerned about the risk premium on international oil prices due to the escalating geopolitical risks in Iran. Trump's remarks about imposing tariffs on countries trading with Iran and withdrawing from Iran have led the market to worry about further escalation of US actions against Iran. The Brent main contract is expected to be in the range of $63 - $67 [2] Industry News Summary Production Forecast - The US is expected to see a decline in oil production in 2027 as output in the Permian Basin drops. The daily crude oil production in 2027 is projected to fall from about 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 to 13.25 million barrels per day [2] Import Data - China's oil imports in 2025 and December 2025 both reached record highs. In December, China's crude oil imports increased by 17% year - on - year, and the total crude oil import volume in 2025 is expected to grow by 4.4% [2] Shipping and Logistics - Since last month, at least 26 ships have changed their registration to Russia, with most changes occurring after the US seized the Venezuelan supertanker Skipper on December 10, 2026. This is a significant increase from 6 ships in November and 14 ships in the previous five months [2] - On January 13, 2026, due to bad weather and a shortage of available mooring points, the CPC loading volume decreased by nearly 75% compared to the normal level. So far this month, only four oil tankers have completed the shipment of about 518,000 tons (crude oil products), equivalent to about 340,000 barrels per day [2] - According to Bloomberg's ship tracking data, as of the four - week period ending January 11, 2026, Russia's average daily crude oil exports were 3.42 million barrels, about 450,000 barrels less per day than the peak before Christmas. Although it is only 30,000 barrels less than the level before January 4, it is still higher than the average level of last year [2] - On January 14, 2026, Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy stated that to mitigate the impact of the decline in CPC terminal throughput in December on Russia's Black Sea coast and avoid production disruptions, the country has redirected some oil shipments to alternative routes [2] Energy Policy - On January 14, 2026, Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Julio Tanjung, announced that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel ratio to 50% this year and will maintain the current mix of 40% palm - oil - based fuel and 60% diesel [2]