有色日报：铜铝镍冲高回落-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume, with the open interest rising to 700,000 contracts during the session. The main contract price broke through the previous high during the session but fell back in the afternoon. As the delivery approaches, the discount of the 01 contract has weakened significantly, reflecting a decline in short - term spot market purchasing willingness. Although silver has been rising continuously in the short term, the upward movement of copper prices has slowed down significantly, with insufficient capital - driven willingness. The futures price may fluctuate and wait for industrial follow - up [6]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum rose and then fell today. The main contract price approached the 25,000 - yuan mark during the session and dropped significantly with reduced positions in the afternoon. The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, and the willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. As the aluminum price has reached the 24,000 - yuan mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased significantly. Technically, it once broke through the 2021 high during the session but then fell back, and the reference for the resistance level remains valid [7]. - Nickel: Shanghai nickel rose and then fell today, with the open interest continuously decreasing. In the afternoon, the macro - atmosphere cooled, and most non - ferrous metals declined. Nickel has accumulated a gain of over 30% since its low in late December, and the short - term willingness of long - position holders to close positions is strong. The short - term amplitude of nickel prices has narrowed significantly, and the willingness of long - position holders to continue pushing up is insufficient. Industrially, the electrolytic nickel inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME have continued to rise, and the weak industrial reality pattern remains unchanged. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: The copper price maintained a strong trend during the session, but the refined copper rod industry had a dull transaction, with weak orders. Downstream buyers were cautious and mostly held a wait - and - see attitude, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand. As tomorrow is the last trading day of the SHFE copper 2601 contract, due to the continuous widening of the monthly spread, sellers have reduced their willingness to sell, and it is expected that the spot premium or discount to the current - month contract will remain strong tomorrow [10]. - Aluminum: On January 14, 2026, it was reported that the aluminum ingot premium at major Japanese ports (MJP) in the first quarter of 2026 was $195 per ton, up $109 per ton from $86 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2025, a rise of 126.7% [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][16]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas electrolytic aluminum exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [23][25][27]. - Nickel: Charts cover nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].