瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - V2605 oscillated weakly and closed at 4,878 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month due to the influence of plant operations. The downstream pipe and profile开工率 changed slightly, and the PVC product开工率 increased slightly. Social inventory accumulated month - on - month and was much higher than the same - period level. The costs of calcium carbide method and ethylene method changed differently, and the profit was repaired due to the strong spot. The PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to change little this week. The influence of chlor - alkali plant maintenance in January is seasonally weak, and the开工率 remains at a relatively high level overall. The terminal real estate and infrastructure are in the low - temperature off - season, and the开工率 of hard products such as pipes and profiles before the Spring Festival decreases seasonally, with weak demand on the demand side. Regarding exports, the export tax - refund cancellation policy starting from April is negative for far - end prices, and the actual impact of short - term "rush to export" needs to be observed. In the short term, V2605 is expected to oscillate, and the daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 4,800 and the pressure around 5,000 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,878 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the trading volume was 1,193,959 lots, a decrease of 421,571 lots; the open interest was 1,028,094 lots, a decrease of 6,529 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 1,063,166 lots, and the short position was 1,150,455 lots, a decrease of 296 lots. The net long position was - 87,289 lots, an increase of 309 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,765 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,686.92 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.23 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,825 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,658.12 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.88 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 610 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 218 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in North China, it was 2,665 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2,491 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far - East intermediate price of VCM was 397 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 428 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars. The CFR Far - East intermediate price of EDC was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 194 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly开工率 of PVC was 79.67%, an increase of 1.04 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.71%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points; the weekly开工率 of ethylene - based PVC was 79.56%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 546,300 tons, an increase of 21,100 tons; the total social inventory in the East China region was 501,800 tons, an increase of 21,200 tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 44,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.560662 billion square meters, an increase of 31.2717 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, an increase of 30.416 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 23.07%, a decrease of 0.99 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.78%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.78%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.8%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - From January 2nd to 8th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 1.03%. From January 3rd to 9th, the downstream开工率 of PVC increased by 0.08 percentage points month - on - month to 44.02%, among which the pipe开工率 decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 35.4%, and the profile开工率 increased by 0.44 percentage points month - on - month to 30.22%. As of January 8th, the PVC social inventory was 1.1141 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48% [3]