螺纹热卷日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, but prices may fluctuate due to market sentiment. The market sentiment has weakened, with limited upside potential, and it may experience a slight correction in the short - term, maintaining a weak and volatile trend. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Thread Steel - Futures: RB05 closed at 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day; RB10 at 3210 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; RB01 at 3143 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The 05 - contract thread steel's on - disk profit was - 167 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 - contract was - 117 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 - contract was - 97 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. [2] - Spot: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel remained at 3270 yuan/ton. The cheapest deliverable was 3200 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of 38 yuan/ton, a 10 - contract basis of - 10 yuan/ton, and a 01 - contract basis of 57 yuan/ton. The profit of Shanghai thread steel rolling was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, while the profit of East China thread steel was - 106 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. [2] 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures: HC05 closed at 3306 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day; HC10 at 3330 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; HC01 at 3251 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil's on - disk profit was - 23 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 10 - contract was 3 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the 01 - contract was 11 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. [2] - Spot: The price of Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest deliverable was 3280 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of - 26 yuan/ton, a 10 - contract basis of - 50 yuan/ton, and a 01 - contract basis of 29 yuan/ton. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 368 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 180 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Related Prices - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel was 3270 yuan, unchanged; Beijing Jingye was 3170 yuan, unchanged; Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan, up 10 yuan; Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan, unchanged. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market sentiment has weakened, with limited upside potential. It may experience a slight correction in the short - term and maintain a weak and volatile trend. [7] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to thread steel spread. [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] 3.2.3 Important Information - In December 2025, China exported 1130.1 million tons of steel, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 11901.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, an increase of 2.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. [10] - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 vehicles; from January to December, the cumulative vehicle exports were 8.324 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.0%. [11] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the basis, price spreads, on - disk profits, and cash profits of thread steel and hot - rolled coil, as well as the spreads between different regions and products. [16][18][20]