铁合金日报-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 14, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferro (SF) main contract closed at 5690, up 0.14%, with a decrease of 4167 in open interest; the manganese ferro (SM) main contract closed at 5920, up 0.07%, with a decrease of 12348 in open interest [6]. - For SF, the spot price was stable on the 14th. The short - term operating rate rebounded slightly, but due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. Demand is in a recovery cycle for hot metal, but steel inventory accumulation may limit the recovery space of blast furnaces. With strong cost support and supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For SM, manganese ore spot was slightly bullish on the 14th, while SM spot was slightly bearish. The operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, with overall stable supply. In January, blast furnaces are expected to have a phased recovery, and pre - Spring Festival restocking demand will support raw material demand. With the decline of manganese ore port inventory and rising overseas mine quotes, SM is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term under cost - push [6]. - Unilateral trading: Expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost - push lead to a short - term volatile and bullish trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Futures Market: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5690, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 170, trading volume of 150108 (a daily decrease of 12853), and open interest of 220837 (a daily decrease of 4167). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5920, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 80, trading volume of 143373 (a daily increase of 224), and open interest of 248641 (a daily decrease of 12348) [3]. - Spot Market: For SF, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5450, 5420, 5350, 5750, and 5850 respectively, with different weekly changes. For SM, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5750, 5630, 5850, 5820, and 5750 respectively, with different weekly changes [3]. - Basis/Spread: The basis and spread of SF and SM in different regions showed various daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 230, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 90 [3]. - Raw Materials: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabonese lump had different daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small pieces in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3]. Market Judgement - Trading Strategy: Due to the expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost - push, the short - term trend is volatile and bullish. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - Important Information: UMK announced the February 2026 manganese ore quotation to China, with the price of Mn36% South African lump at 4.32 US dollars per ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 US dollars per ton - degree. In December 2025, China's steel exports were 11.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.321 million tons or 13.2%; the cumulative steel exports from January to December were 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [8]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [13][14][15][16][18][19][21].